Concerns have surfaced inside OPEC on two fronts; Iraq, Iran, and Venezuela have accused the OPEC secretariat of under-reporting their production numbers and Iraq have called for an exemption from the cuts. While the first dispute can be solved amicably with the presentations of proof of production, but the second dispute would test the strength in the unity of the OPEC as well as the determination to cooperate under the deal.

At this point, it is, however, far from clear that who might actually take the production cuts in OPEC. In September, OPEC as a cartel produced 33.4 million barrels of oil. Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, and UAE produced more than 64 percent of all oil. To bring the production back to the agreed level there needs to be a minimum cut of 0.4 million barrels. In addition to that, Iran, Nigeria, and Libya are exempted from the deal. To the very minimum, there would be an increase in the production from these countries by 0.8 million barrels. So the production cut for others would be between 1.2 million barrels and 1.7 million barrels per day. In percentage terms, between 4.3 to 6 percent cut.

Where will this come from?

Even the cuts get evenly distributed then it’s not much but exemption by countries like Iraq would definitely increase the burdens on others.