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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its latest report named ‘World Economic Outlook’ raised economic growth forecast for 2017 to 3.4 percent, from the previous estimate of 3.1 percent.
Global growth for 2016 is now estimated at 3.1 percent, in line with the October 2016 forecast. Economic activity in both advanced economies and EMDEs is forecast to accelerate in 2017–18, with global growth projected to be 3.4 percent and 3.6 percent, respectively, again unchanged from the October forecasts.
The IMF mentioned that the advanced economies are now projected to grow by 1.9 percent in 2017 and 2.0 percent in 2018, 0.1 and 0.2 percentage points more than in the October forecast, respectively. As noted, this forecast is particularly uncertain in light of potential changes in the policy stance of the United States under the incoming administration. The projection for the United States is the one with the highest likelihood among a wide range of possible scenarios.
It assumes a fiscal stimulus that leads growth to rise to 2.3 percent in 2017 and 2.5 percent in 2018, a cumulative increase in GDP of ½ percentage point relative to the October forecast. Growth projections for 2017 have also been revised upward for Germany, Japan, Spain, and the United Kingdom, mostly on account of a stronger-than-expected performance during the latter part of 2016. These upward revisions more than offset the downward revisions to the outlook for Italy and Korea.
There has been a stronger-than-expected pickup in growth in advanced economies, due mostly to a reduced drag from inventories and some recovery in manufacturing output. In contrast, it is matched by an unexpected slowdown in some emerging market economies, mostly reflecting idiosyncratic factors. Forward-looking indicators such as purchasing managers’ indices have remained strong in the fourth quarter in most areas.
Among advanced economies, activity rebounded strongly in the United States after a weak first half of 2016, and the economy is approaching full employment. Output remains below potential in a number of other advanced economies, notably in the euro area.
Preliminary third-quarter growth figures were somewhat stronger than previously forecast in some economies, such as Spain and the United Kingdom, where domestic demand held up better than expected in the aftermath of the Brexit vote. Historical growth revisions indicate that Japan’s growth rate in 2016 and in preceding years was stronger than previously estimated.
