Kevin Warsh Advances Toward Fed Chair Role Amid Political Tensions 
South Korea Central Bank Signals Inflation Concerns as Oil Prices Surge 
South Korea Central Bank Signals Cautious Policy Amid Inflation and Middle East Tensions 
DOJ Ends Probe Into Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Boosting Kevin Warsh Confirmation Prospects 
Bank of England Set to Hold Interest Rates as Inflation Risks and Iran War Impact Loom 
BOJ Holds Interest Rates at 0.75% as Policymakers Signal Growing Inflation Concerns 
We emphasize potential trading opportunities related to anomalies or dislocations in emerging market currencies.
TWD has been too strong versus rate differentials,
The TWD is more correlated to interest rate differentials than most EM currencies; the move lower in USDTWD in the past month has far exceeded levels consistent with rates.
Assuming the Fed hikes by year end (we expect a rate hike in December) or at the minimum the market continues to ascribe a decent probability to a near-term rate increase coupled with the likelihood that the CBC eases, rate differentials should move further in the USD’s favour.
Taiwan is also susceptible to renewed fears of China’s growth slowdown. While negative forward points provide positive carry in shorting the TWD.
Hence, we encourage longs in USDTWD on its attractive carry and China exposure sentiment toward EM currencies could be in the procedure of shifting and we prefer to focus on regional low yielders in expressing a bullish dollar view. The slew of hawkish commentary from Fed officials in recent weeks as put the possibility of a rate hike back in play for H2.
