Asian Stocks Slip as Tech Rout Deepens, Japan Steadies Ahead of Election 
Australian Household Spending Dips in December as RBA Tightens Policy 
Trump Signs Executive Order Threatening 25% Tariffs on Countries Trading With Iran 
Trump Lifts 25% Tariff on Indian Goods in Strategic U.S.–India Trade and Energy Deal 
Trump’s Inflation Claims Clash With Voters’ Cost-of-Living Reality 
Japanese Pharmaceutical Stocks Slide as TrumpRx.gov Launch Sparks Market Concerns 
Global Markets Slide as AI, Crypto, and Precious Metals Face Heightened Volatility 
Gold and Silver Prices Slide as Dollar Strength and Easing Tensions Weigh on Metals 
Dow Hits 50,000 as U.S. Stocks Stage Strong Rebound Amid AI Volatility 
Asian Markets Surge as Japan Election, Fed Rate Cut Bets, and Tech Rally Lift Global Sentiment 
Asian Currencies Stay Rangebound as Yen Firms on Intervention Talk 
U.S.-India Trade Framework Signals Major Shift in Tariffs, Energy, and Supply Chains 
Nikkei 225 Hits Record High Above 56,000 After Japan Election Boosts Market Confidence 
China Extends Gold Buying Streak as Reserves Surge Despite Volatile Prices 
U.S. Stock Futures Slide as Tech Rout Deepens on Amazon Capex Shock 
The strategy for trading EMFX encompasses a mixed bag. It is generally pro-risk through exposure to high yielders but with a modest long dollar bias by shorting low yielders that offer little value either from a carry or fundamental perspective (complete list of trade ideas in Trade Monitor). This balanced approach remains prudent.
China: January FX reserves fell a touch below US$3 trillion. China’s FX reserves declined by US$12.3 billion in January to$2.998 trillion, a touch below the psychologically sensitive US$3 trillion threshold to mark the lowest level since February 2011, down from aUS$3.993 trillion peak in June 2014.
While January trade report points to benign near-term exports trend.
Taiwan trade activity eased in January, partly on seasonal factors.
Risk on price action in EM FX overnight; for now (and absent a catalyst), it is hard to fight the trend, especially in high yielding space. It seems like any risk premium related to Trump is evaporating and there is no longer any concern about the Fed, Chinese growth, or CNY.
Reduction in risk premium is being supported by improving fundamentals – growth dynamics improving across an EM aggregate and return on assets perking up from the mid-2016 low.
While South Korean Housing market indicators softened.
Household lending likely accelerated further in Q4’16.
Next week: Trade prices and unemployment rate.
Trade recommendations:
The long dollar risk is selective and focused on low yielders (except CNH) and mostly via options.
Long USDKRW via 1x2 call spread: Good entry point with 61.8% retracement level from the September low to December high coming in around 1136. 1x2 structure improves max leverage to 9 times from 3 times in a 1x1.
Long USDSGD: via a one-touch: Worried about French elections and EUR parity? SGD 3m implied vol about 40% cheaper than EUR vol.
Long USDCNH via a 1yr seagull: Expensive to bet against the CNH. Seagull provides upside exposure that is cheapened significantly by selling expensive 1-year vol.
Long USDTWD: Tactical position to fade YTD strength in TWD; could face more formidable support above the May 2015 low (30.39).
