Oil Prices Dip Slightly Amid Focus on Russian Sanctions and U.S. Inflation Data 
ECB Keeps July Rate Options Open Amid Iran War Energy Price Risks 
China's Refining Industry Faces Major Shakeup Amid Challenges 
Gold Prices Slide as Rate Cut Prospects Diminish; Copper Gains on China Stimulus Hopes 
ECB Set to Raise Interest Rates as Energy Shock Fuels Eurozone Inflation Concerns 
Indonesia Surprises Markets with Interest Rate Cut Amid Currency Pressure 
US Gas Market Poised for Supercycle: Bernstein Analysts 
BOJ Raises Interest Rates to 31-Year High, Signals Strong Focus on Inflation Risks 
China’s Growth Faces Structural Challenges Amid Doubts Over Data 
Global Markets React to Strong U.S. Jobs Data and Rising Yields 
S&P 500 Relies on Tech for Growth in Q4 2024, Says Barclays 
South Korea Signals Possible Interest Rate Hike as Inflation Remains Elevated 
AI can be a personal trainer in your pocket – but is it safe? 
Fed May Resume Rate Hikes: BofA Analysts Outline Key Scenarios 
The planned US sanctions against Russia mark a new low in the political relations between the two countries. The US legislation projects new sanctions against state-owned Russian companies in the mining, metal, shipping and railway sector.
Moreover the fines will not simply be limited to Russian but all companies that deal with Russian oil and gas companies. This “extraterritorial effect” of the US sanctions has caused a fierce conflict with the EU.
It is already threatening “retaliatory measures” as many European companies would be affected by the sanctions. The US measures would have an effect on the entire gas and oil supply of Europe and constitutes a clear turning point in the political approach towards Russia on the part of the US.
President Donald Trump, so far a supporter of Russia who went into office with the aim of improving US relations with the country seems to be bowing to political pressure within the US. A White House spokesman has already signaled approval of the legislation, while Senate still has to ratify the bill.
An easing of the sanctions will no longer be so easy now. The US President’s competence in this respect was severely limited and he can no longer decide on the matter on his own.
In view of this seismic shift, the ruble is likely to remain volatile and the Russian central bank’s meeting tomorrow is likely to be a non-event. Following the moderate 25bp rate cut to 9.0% in June the central bank is likely to take a wait and see approach anyway.
While JPM now calls for the high carry-to-volatility of RUB makes the currency attractive to longer-term investors in our view.
Shorting the RUB in volatility space seems to be very expensive: implied vol is one of the highest in EM and risk reversals are the highest. The skew-to-ATM volatility ratio has been rising steadily since early 2016, likely related to investors hedging bullish RUB price action. These volatility parameters favor structures that sell topside skew to cheapen up bullish USDRUB exposure.
FxWirePro launches Absolute Return Managed Program. For more details, visit:
