MAS Holds Monetary Policy Steady as Strong Growth Raises Inflation Risks 
Japan Declines Comment on BOJ’s Absence From Global Support Statement for Fed Chair Powell. Source: Asturio Cantabrio, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons 
Bank of England Expected to Hold Interest Rates at 3.75% as Inflation Remains Elevated 
BOJ Rate Decision in Focus as Yen Weakness and Inflation Shape Market Outlook 
RBA Expected to Raise Interest Rates by 25 Basis Points in February, ANZ Forecast Says 
ECB’s Cipollone Backs Digital Euro as Europe Pushes for Payment System Independence 
Bank of Canada Holds Interest Rate at 2.25% Amid Trade and Global Uncertainty 
China Holds Loan Prime Rates Steady in January as Market Expectations Align 
Jerome Powell Attends Supreme Court Hearing on Trump Effort to Fire Fed Governor, Calling It Historic 
ECB Signals Steady Interest Rates as Fed Risks Loom Over Outlook 
Markets React as Tensions Rise Between White House and Federal Reserve Over Interest Rate Pressure 
For today, the major focus would be the FOMC meeting on Funds rate, where a Fed funds rate likely to hike from 0.50% to 0.75% mark which is broadly projected (and clearly priced in by all markets). Also of interest would be the updated economic forecasts and Fed funds rate projection, with markets currently fully agreeing with the two hikes projected in 2018.
Thus, turbulence is expected but no dramatic moves in FX markets unless any surprises would come from the tone of the statement and Yellen’s press conference.
Well, in order to favor ongoing upswings which seem to be momentary, we advocate vanilla structures in 2w USDARS ATM delta calls.
On the flip side, the bearish stance of USDARS is grounded on prospects for a more extended agricultural exports high season on the back of corn production, together with tax amnesty inflows and the return of Argentina to markets in Q1’17.
Short USDARS, the Argentinean peso underperformed markedly on the month. Yet, we remain constructive ARS in H1’17 and continue to recommend selling 3m and up to 6m USDARS NDF.
Moreover, the central bank stood pat this week, decreasing concerns on political pressures after the authority cut the policy rate 200 bps in November.
Short USDARS 6-month NDF (sell at 16.50). Marked at -3.25%.
