Japan Economy Minister Downplays Inflation Risks Despite BOJ Warning 
China Set to Hold Benchmark Lending Rates Steady for 15th Month 
RBA Signals More Rate Hikes Possible as Australia Battles Stubborn Inflation 
Fed Holds Interest Rates Steady as Kevin Warsh Says Rising Treasury Yields Tighten Financial Conditions 
Singapore Central Bank’s Exchange Rate Policy Explained: Why MAS Uses the S$NEER Instead of Interest Rates 
BSP Sees Philippine Inflation Easing, Keeps Policy Options Open 
Fed Minutes Signal Rate Hikes Remain Possible as Inflation Risks Persist 
BOJ Rate Decision in Focus as Sticky Inflation, Weak Yen Shape USD/JPY and Nikkei Outlook 
Add as a preferred source on Google
For today, the major focus would be the FOMC meeting on Funds rate, where a Fed funds rate likely to hike from 0.50% to 0.75% mark which is broadly projected (and clearly priced in by all markets). Also of interest would be the updated economic forecasts and Fed funds rate projection, with markets currently fully agreeing with the two hikes projected in 2018.
Thus, turbulence is expected but no dramatic moves in FX markets unless any surprises would come from the tone of the statement and Yellen’s press conference.
Well, in order to favor ongoing upswings which seem to be momentary, we advocate vanilla structures in 2w USDARS ATM delta calls.
On the flip side, the bearish stance of USDARS is grounded on prospects for a more extended agricultural exports high season on the back of corn production, together with tax amnesty inflows and the return of Argentina to markets in Q1’17.
Short USDARS, the Argentinean peso underperformed markedly on the month. Yet, we remain constructive ARS in H1’17 and continue to recommend selling 3m and up to 6m USDARS NDF.
Moreover, the central bank stood pat this week, decreasing concerns on political pressures after the authority cut the policy rate 200 bps in November.
Short USDARS 6-month NDF (sell at 16.50). Marked at -3.25%.
