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Most Federal Reserve policymakers expect another U.S. interest rate hike before the end of 2026, according to minutes from the central bank’s September policy meeting released Wednesday.
The Federal Open Market Committee unanimously raised the federal funds rate by 25 basis points in September to a range of 3.75%-4.00%, marking its first increase in more than three years. The Fed’s updated projections also indicated that most officials anticipated at least one additional hike this year.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said after the September decision that higher rates would support a faster return of inflation toward the central bank’s 2% target, stressing that price pressures remained too elevated.
However, policymakers emphasized that future Fed interest rate decisions would depend on incoming economic data and changes in the balance of risks.
Recent indicators have complicated the outlook. The U.S. personal consumption expenditures price index rose 3.4% year over year in August, while core PCE inflation increased 3%. Meanwhile, second-quarter GDP growth was revised higher to 2.2% from 1.5%.
Labor market data showed more weakness, with the U.S. economy adding just 29,000 jobs in September, the slowest hiring pace this year. These figures have contributed to expectations that the Fed could leave rates unchanged at its October meeting. CME FedWatch data showed the probability of no change at nearly 81%.
New York Fed President John Williams recently said there was “no need for urgency” to raise rates, while Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson called for further assessment of economic data.
Rising Treasury yields are also influencing the Fed outlook. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has climbed 28 basis points since September 16 and recently reached its highest level since 2002, increasing borrowing costs across the economy.
Despite bond-market volatility, U.S. stocks have remained resilient. The S&P 500 was down about 0.2% following the minutes, while the 10-year Treasury yield edged up 1.6 basis points to 5.284%.
