Bank of Japan Likely to Delay Rate Hike Until July as Economists Eye 1% by September 
China Holds Loan Prime Rates Steady in January as Market Expectations Align 
ECB’s Cipollone Backs Digital Euro as Europe Pushes for Payment System Independence 
Fed Confirms Rate Meeting Schedule Despite Severe Winter Storm in Washington D.C. 
Bank of Canada Holds Interest Rate at 2.25% Amid Trade and Global Uncertainty 
MAS Holds Monetary Policy Steady as Strong Growth Raises Inflation Risks 
Why Trump’s new pick for Fed chair hit gold and silver markets – for good reasons 
FOMC followed through its promise and hiked rates four times in 2018 and forecasted two more rate hikes for 2019. Current Federal funds rate - 225-250 bps (Note, all calculations are based on data as of 13th May)
- June 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 13.3 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 86.7 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- July 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 1.9 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 23.9 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 74.1 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- September 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 8.5 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 37.8 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 53.6 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- October 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 14.6 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 40.4 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 45 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- December 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 6.1 percent probability that rates will be at 1.50-1.75 percent, 22.2 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 41.9 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 29.7 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
The probability is suggesting,
- Since our last review a week ago, the probabilities have significantly eased, as several FOMC member hinting at rate cuts going ahead.
- The market is pricing the possibility of a rate cut with 70.3 percent probability, compared to 57.3 percent last week, and 58.3 percent in the week before that.
