According to December Projections, the Federal Reserve policymakers expect the Federal funds rate to be 1.4 percent in 2017, which is approximately 75 basis points higher than the current rate and implies three 25 basis points hike this year.

Next, we would like to look at how the projections are distributed among all policymakers. According to the dot-plot, two members are projecting just one hike, four members are projecting two hikes, six members are projecting three hikes, three members are projecting four hikes, and two members are projecting more than four hikes. In 2017, there are 17 policymakers in the Fed, among which 10 have the right to vote on the policy. So among these 17 members, 11 are projecting three rate hikes or more. Even if the more hawkish policymakers do not vote this year, most members are still in for two rate hikes or more.

Since Fed wouldn’t want to even out the hikes, in the case of three hikes, the first one needs to be delivered by April. If Fed goes for just one hike in June, it would be unlikely to have three hikes from Fed this year.