Menu

Search

  |   Commentary

Menu

  |   Commentary

Search

Fed Hike Aftermath Series: Hike odds post March FOMC

As expected, the US Federal Reserve hiked interest rate by 25 basis points in its March meeting. However, aside from the rate hike, there were no major changes in the FOMC forecast or statement, except for few minor tweaks. With March meeting gone, there are now seven upcoming meetings this year and the Fed has forecasted hikes in two of them.  Let’s look at the market pricing of the hikes, (note, all calculations are based on data as of 16th March)

  • May 3rd meeting: Market is attaching 94 percent probability that rates will be at 0.75-1.00 percent, and 6 percent probability that rates will be at 1.00-1.25 percent.
  • June 14th Meeting: Market is attaching 46 percent probability that rates will be at 0.75-1.00 percent, 51 percent probability that rates will be at 1.00-1.25 percent, and 3 percent probability that rates will be at 1.25-1.50 percent.
  • July 26th meeting: Market is attaching 38 percent probability that rates will be at 0.75-1.00 percent, 50 percent probability that rates will be at 1.00-1.25 percent, 11 percent probability that rates will be at 1.25-1.50 percent, and 1 percent probability that rates will be at 1.50-1.75 percent.
  • September 20th meeting: Market is attaching 21 percent probability that rates will be at 0.75-1.00 percent, 45 percent probability that rates will be at 1.00-1.25 percent, 28 percent probability that rates will be at 1.25-1.50 percent, 5.5 percent probability that rates will be at 1.50-1.75 percent, and 0.5 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent.
  • November 1st meeting:  Market is attaching 20 percent probability that rates will be at 0.75-1.00 percent, 43 percent probability that rates will be at 1.00-1.25 percent, 29 percent probability that rates will be at 1.25-1.50 percent, 7 percent probability that rates will be at 1.50-1.75 percent, and 1 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent.
  • December 13th meeting: Market is attaching 10 percent probability that rates will be at 0.75-1.00 percent, 32 percent probability that rates will be at 1.00-1.25 percent, 36 percent probability that rates will be at 1.25-1.50 percent, 18 percent probability that rates will be at 1.50-1.75 percent, 3.5 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, and 0.5 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent.

The probability is suggesting,

  • There hasn’t been much of a change after the FOMC. The market is still pricing a hike in June and a hike in December. It is still not clear why the market is predicting two hikes in H1 and just one in H2. This is probably because the market is pricing the Fed would keep additional room for easing.
  • We suspect that if the price of oil tumbles further, so would be the hike odds.
  • ET PRO
  • Market Data

Market-moving news and views, 24 hours a day >

December 10 23:50 UTC Released

JPBusiness Survey Index*

Actual

9.7 %

Forecast

Previous

9.4 %

December 9 01:30 UTC Released

CNPPI YY*

Actual

5.8 %

Forecast

5.9 %

Previous

6.9 %

December 11 07:00 UTC 177177m

TRCurrent Account Balance*

Actual

Forecast

Previous

-4.527 Bln USD

December 11 09:00 UTC 297297m

ITRetail Sales SA MM

Actual

Forecast

Previous

0.9 %

December 11 09:00 UTC 297297m

ITRetail Sales NSA YY

Actual

Forecast

Previous

3.4 %

December 11 11:30 UTC 447447m

TREndYear CPI Fcst/Cb Svy*

Actual

Forecast

Previous

10.68 %

December 11 15:00 UTC 657657m

USEmployment Trends*

Actual

Forecast

Previous

135.6 tln

December 11 15:00 UTC 657657m

USJOLTS Job Openings*

Actual

Forecast

Previous

6.093 Mln

December 11 21:00 UTC 10171017m

KRExport Price Growth YY*

Actual

Forecast

Previous

8 %

December 11 21:00 UTC 10171017m

KRImport Price Growth YY*

Actual

Forecast

Previous

6.8 %

Close

Welcome to EconoTimes

Sign up for daily updates for the most important
stories unfolding in the global economy.