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Fed Hike Aftermath Series: Hike odds post March FOMC

As expected, the US Federal Reserve hiked interest rate by 25 basis points in its March meeting. However, aside from the rate hike, there were no major changes in the FOMC forecast or statement, except for few minor tweaks. With March meeting gone, there are now seven upcoming meetings this year and the Fed has forecasted hikes in two of them.  Let’s look at the market pricing of the hikes, (note, all calculations are based on data as of 16th March)

  • May 3rd meeting: Market is attaching 94 percent probability that rates will be at 0.75-1.00 percent, and 6 percent probability that rates will be at 1.00-1.25 percent.
  • June 14th Meeting: Market is attaching 46 percent probability that rates will be at 0.75-1.00 percent, 51 percent probability that rates will be at 1.00-1.25 percent, and 3 percent probability that rates will be at 1.25-1.50 percent.
  • July 26th meeting: Market is attaching 38 percent probability that rates will be at 0.75-1.00 percent, 50 percent probability that rates will be at 1.00-1.25 percent, 11 percent probability that rates will be at 1.25-1.50 percent, and 1 percent probability that rates will be at 1.50-1.75 percent.
  • September 20th meeting: Market is attaching 21 percent probability that rates will be at 0.75-1.00 percent, 45 percent probability that rates will be at 1.00-1.25 percent, 28 percent probability that rates will be at 1.25-1.50 percent, 5.5 percent probability that rates will be at 1.50-1.75 percent, and 0.5 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent.
  • November 1st meeting:  Market is attaching 20 percent probability that rates will be at 0.75-1.00 percent, 43 percent probability that rates will be at 1.00-1.25 percent, 29 percent probability that rates will be at 1.25-1.50 percent, 7 percent probability that rates will be at 1.50-1.75 percent, and 1 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent.
  • December 13th meeting: Market is attaching 10 percent probability that rates will be at 0.75-1.00 percent, 32 percent probability that rates will be at 1.00-1.25 percent, 36 percent probability that rates will be at 1.25-1.50 percent, 18 percent probability that rates will be at 1.50-1.75 percent, 3.5 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, and 0.5 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent.

The probability is suggesting,

  • There hasn’t been much of a change after the FOMC. The market is still pricing a hike in June and a hike in December. It is still not clear why the market is predicting two hikes in H1 and just one in H2. This is probably because the market is pricing the Fed would keep additional room for easing.
  • We suspect that if the price of oil tumbles further, so would be the hike odds.
  • ET PRO
  • Market Data

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March 24 14:30 UTC Released

USECRI Weekly Annualized*

Actual

9.0 %

Forecast

Previous

9.6 %

March 24 14:30 UTC Released

USECRI Weekly Index*

Actual

144.6 %

Forecast

Previous

145.5 %

March 27 08:00 UTC 19401940m

DEReal GDP YY*

Actual

Forecast

111.0 %

Previous

111.0 %

March 27 08:00 UTC 19401940m

EZIfo Expectations*

Actual

Forecast

104.0 %

Previous

104.0 %

March 27 08:00 UTC 19401940m

DEIfo Expectations*

Actual

Forecast

104.3

Previous

104.0

March 27 08:00 UTC 19401940m

DEIfo Current Conditions*

Actual

Forecast

118.3 %

Previous

118.4 %

March 27 09:00 UTC 20002000m

EZIfo Expectations*

Actual

Forecast

4.9 %

Previous

4.9 %

March 27 09:00 UTC 20002000m

TRLoans to Non-Fin

Actual

Forecast

Previous

2.3 %

March 27 09:00 UTC 20002000m

EZLoans to Non-Fin

Actual

Forecast

Previous

2.3 %

March 27 09:00 UTC 20002000m

EZLoans to Households*

Actual

Forecast

2.3 %

Previous

2.2 %

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