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Market is now more hawkish than last time we checked after FED hike in December and speech from Janet Yellen. Market seems to be expecting FED to be more aggressive in 2016.
Let's look at the market pricing of hikes over next few meetings.
Current Federal funds target range is at 0.25 - 0.5%.
- January, 2016 meeting - Market is attaching 89% probability that rates will move to 0.25-0.5% and 11% probability that rates will be at 0.5-0.75%.
- March, 2016 meeting - Market is attaching 44% probability that rates will move to 0.25-0.5%, 50% probability that rates will be at 0.5-0.75% and 5% probability that rates will be at 0.75-1%
- April, 2016 meeting - Market is attaching 38% probability that rates will move to 0.25-0.5%, 49% probability that rates will be at 0.5-0.75%, 12% probability that rates will be at 0.75-1% and 1% probability that rates will be at 1-1.25%.
- June, 2016 meeting - Market is attaching 22% probability that rates will move to 0.25-0.5%, 45% probability that rates will be at 0.5-0.75%, 27% probability that rates will be at 0.75-1% and 5% probability that rates will be at 1-1.25%.
- July, 2016 meeting - Market is attaching 19% probability that rates will move to 0.25-0.5%, 41% probability that rates will be at 0.5-0.75%, 30% probability that rates will be at 0.75-1%, 9% probability that rates will be at 1-1.25% and 1% probability that rates will be at 1.25-1.5%.
As of now, Market is predicating with more than 50% probability of next hike to be in March, 2016. In December, post FOMC market expectation for a hike was in April.
