At the end of last year, market was predicting FED will hike rates twice this year and the first to come as early as March. However, global financial market turmoil has been pushing hikes into the future, since the beginning of the year.

Market is now expecting there would be only one rate hike in 2016 and pushed expectations of such in second half of the year.

Hike probabilities are below -

Current Federal funds target range is at 0.25 - 0.5%.

• January, 2016 meeting - Market is attaching 90% probability that rates will move to 0.25-0.5% and 10% probability that rates will be at 0.5-0.75%.

• March, 2016 meeting - Market is attaching 69% probability that rates will move to 0.25-0.5%, 28% probability that rates will be at 0.5-0.75% and 2% probability that rates will be at 0.75-1%

• April, 2016 meeting - Market is attaching 63% probability that rates will move to 0.25-0.5%, 32% probability that rates will be at 0.5-0.75%, 5% probability that rates will be at 0.75-1%

• June, 2016 meeting - Market is attaching 51% probability that rates will move to 0.25-0.5%, 38% probability that rates will be at 0.5-0.75%, 10% probability that rates will be at 0.75-1% and 1% probability that rates will be at 1-1.25%.

• July, 2016 meeting - Market is attaching 48% probability that rates will move to 0.25-0.5%, 39% probability that rates will be at 0.5-0.75%, 12% probability that rates will be at 0.75-1% and 2% probability that rates will be at 1-1.25%

Market largely scaled back its expectations for rate hike. Now Market is predicating with higher than 50% probability that rate hike will be in July compared to March in end of 2015.