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FED hike aftermath series – Probability check on next FED hike

With first rate indicating beginning of policy normalization, as FED hiked 25 basis points in yesterday's meeting, market focus will be on subsequent hikes. Overall market is predicting two more hikes next year.

Let's look at the market pricing of hikes over next few meetings.

Current Federal funds target range is at 0.25 - 0.5%.

  • January, 2016 meeting - Market is attaching 90% probability that rates will move to 0.25-0.5% and 10% probability that rates will be at 0.5-0.75%.
  • March, 2016 meeting - Market is attaching 52% probability that rates will move to 0.25-0.5%, 44% probability that rates will be at 0.5-0.75% and 4% probability that rates will be at 0.75-1%
  • April, 2016 meeting - Market is attaching 44% probability that rates will move to 0.25-0.5%, 45% probability that rates will be at 0.5-0.75%, 11% probability that rates will be at 0.75-1% and 1% probability that rates will be at 1-1.25%.
  • June, 2016 meeting - Market is attaching 29% probability that rates will move to 0.25-0.5%, 45% probability that rates will be at 0.5-0.75%, 22% probability that rates will be at 0.75-1% and 4% probability that rates will be at 1-1.25%.
  • July, 2016 meeting - Market is attaching 23% probability that rates will move to 0.25-0.5%, 41% probability that rates will be at 0.5-0.75%, 27% probability that rates will be at 0.75-1%, 8% probability that rates will be at 1-1.25% and 1% probability that rates will be at 1.25-1.5%.

As of now, Market is predicating with more than 50% probability of next hike to be in April, 2016.

  • Market Data
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