FxWirePro: Daily Commodity Tracker - 21st March, 2022 
South Africa Eyes ECB Repo Lines as Inflation Eases and Rate Cuts Loom 
RBI Holds Repo Rate at 5.25% as India’s Growth Outlook Strengthens After U.S. Trade Deal 
Fed Governor Lisa Cook Warns Inflation Risks Remain as Rates Stay Steady 
ECB’s Cipollone Backs Digital Euro as Europe Pushes for Payment System Independence 
Jerome Powell Attends Supreme Court Hearing on Trump Effort to Fire Fed Governor, Calling It Historic 
Bank of Canada Holds Interest Rate at 2.25% Amid Trade and Global Uncertainty 
Bank of Japan Signals Cautious Path Toward Further Rate Hikes Amid Yen Weakness 
After a relatively dovish FED yesterday, where participants reduced their forecast for interest rates in 2017 by 30 basis points and 60 basis points for 2018, rates market backed away from pricing a hike this year. FOMC still projected two hikes this year but according to market that seems very unlikely.
- Before the FOMC, the market was pricing 79 percent chance of no hike in July but that deteriorated to 93 percent as of now.
- September odd of status quo was at 64 percent before, now that is at 82 percent.
- Previously market was pricing 62 percent chance of no hike in November but the market is sure with 77 percent probability that there won’t be a hike.
- Previously market was forecasting a hike in December but that chance has now deteriorated to 41 percent.
The probability of the second hike in December now stands at just 6 percent.
Back in December, we at FxWirePro was forecasting one or two hikes this year, we maintain that view but think that British referendum will be a big factor in determining that.
