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FED Hike Aftermath Series: Market just shy of pricing a September hike

Market mood seems to have changed. We are getting lot of evidence of such. We had expected a much larger correction this time around and fundamentally speaking it was due but it seems the bears or the correction callers might have to wait longer, before equities fall in line with subdued economic recovery, weaker growth in earnings.

For last few weeks, S&P 500 has rallied sharply and currently trading just shy of 200 mark after double bottoming around 1815 area. Equities, which are so much hooked with central bank stimulus, might rally further if European Central Bank introduces further bond purchase.

Federal funds future market is surely pointing to a turnaround in sentiment, especially since US economic dockets have started showing back some strength. US GDP expanded by 15 in fourth quarter beating market expectations handsomely. Yesterday, ADP employment report showed, 214,000 jobs were gained in February. Today NFP report, if come positive may provide next level push required for increase in the hike bets.

  • According to latest, Federal funds future is predicting 52% probability that rates will remain at current level, 38% probability that rates will be higher by 25 basis points, 10% probability that rates will be higher by 50 basis points and 1% probability that rates will be higher by 75 basis points.

Dollar index is currently trading at 97.53, down -0.14% daily.

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