Market Roundup
• HCOB Italy Services PMI (Jan) 52.9, 51.3 forecast, 51.5 previous
•HCOB Italy Composite PMI (Jan) 51.4, 50.3 forecast, – previous
•HCOB France Services PMI (Jan) 48.4, 47.9 forecast, 50.1 previous
•HCOB France Composite PMI (Jan) 49.1, 48.6 forecast, 50.0 previous
•HCOB Germany Services PMI (Jan) 52.4, 53.3 forecast, 52.7 previous
•HCOB Germany Composite PMI (Jan) 52.1, 52.5 forecast, 51.3 previous
•HCOB Eurozone Services PMI (Jan) 51.6, 51.9 forecast, 52.4 previous
•HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI (Jan) 51.3, 51.5 forecast, 51.5 previous
•UK S&P Global Composite PMI (Jan) 53.7, 53.9 forecast, 51.4 previous
•UK S&P Global Services PMI (Jan) 54.0, 54.3 forecast, 51.4 previous
•EU CPI (YoY) (Jan) 1.7%, 1.7 forecast, 2.0 previous
•EU Core CPI (YoY) (Jan) 2.2%, 2.3 forecast, 2.3 previous
•EU CPI (MoM) (Jan) -0.5%, 0.2 previous
H•EU ICP ex Energy & Food (YoY) (Jan) 2.2%, 2.3 previous
•EU PPI (YoY) (Dec) -2.1%, -2.3 forecast, -1.4 previous
•EU CPI, n.s.a (Jan) 100.08, 100.63 previous
•EU PPI (MoM) (Dec) -0.3%, -0.3 forecast, 0.7 previous
•EU Core CPI (MoM) (Jan) 2.3%, 0.3 previous
•EU HICP ex Energy and Food (MoM) (Jan) 2.3%, – forecast, 0.2 previous
•Italian CPI (YoY) (Jan) 1.0%, 1.0 forecast, 1.2 previous
•Italian HICP (MoM) (Jan) -1.0%, -1.0 forecast, 0.2 previous
•Italian HICP (YoY) (Jan) 1.0%, 0.9 forecast, 1.2 previous
•Italian CPI (MoM) (Jan) 0.4%, 0.4 forecast, 0.2 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 14:00 US JOLTS Job Openings (Dec) 7.230M forecast, 7.146M previous
• 14:30 US Services PMI (Jan) 46.50 previous
• 14:45 US S&P Global Services PMI (Jan) 52.5 forecast, 52.5 previous
• 14:45 US S&P Global Composite PMI (Jan) 52.8 forecast, 52.7 previous
•15:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 53.5 forecast, 54.4 previous
•15:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (Jan) 52.3 forecast, 52.0 previous
•15:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Jan) 64.3 previous
•15:00 ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders (Jan) 57.9 previous
•15:00 ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity (Jan) 56.0 previous
•15:30 US Crude Oil Inventories –2.000M forecast, –2.295M previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged higher on Wednesday as investors digested Eurozone inflation data. Inflation in the 21 countries sharing the euro fell to its lowest level since September 2024, slipping to 1.7% in January, in line with forecasts, weighed down by lower energy prices. Economists expect this soft patch to persist for at least a year, keeping the European Central Bank on hold. The ECB anticipates inflation will slightly undershoot its 2% target this year and next before returning to target in 2028. Inflation has hovered around 2% for over a year following price surges driven by the post-COVID economic recovery and the impact of Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, which had pushed up fuel costs. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1908(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1978(Jan 30th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1786(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1762(SMA 20).
GBP/USD: Sterling strengthened on Wednesday as investors positioned ahead of the Bank of England’s policy meeting later this week. While UK interest rates are expected to decline further this year, the BoE is likely to remain vague on the timing and magnitude of cuts as it awaits clearer inflation data. Traders have priced in 35 bps of rate cuts by year-end, implying one 25 bps move and a 40% probability of an additional cut. On the data front, the S&P Global UK Services PMI rose to 54 in January from 51.4 in December, slightly below preliminary estimates of 54.3 but marking the highest reading since August 2025. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3809(Jan 30th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3855(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3670 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3561(SMA 20).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar firmed on Wednesday as investors priced in further rate hikes, supported by positive services PMI data. The Reserve Bank raised its cash rate for the first time in two years during its February meeting, citing stronger economic growth and persistent inflation pressures. After signaling that inflation would not return to the middle of its 2%–3% target range by mid-2028, traders priced in around 40 basis points of additional tightening this year, with a May hike seen as 80% likely. On the data front, Australia’s services sector expanded at its fastest pace in nearly four years, with the Services PMI rising to 56.3 in January from 51.1 in December, though softer business confidence highlighted some underlying caution. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6748(Feb 3rd high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7084(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6941(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6835(SMA 20)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar strengthened against the yen on Wednesday as concerns over Japan’s fiscal position and political uncertainty outweighed expectations of tighter Bank of Japan policy. The possibility of coordinated U.S.-Japan action has eased some pressure on the yen, but its direction remains uncertain ahead of Japan’s weekend elections. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is campaigning on plans for increased spending, tax cuts, and a new security strategy aimed at accelerating Japan’s defense expansion. Takaichi’s earlier remarks this week sparked a yen selloff by raising expectations of policy easing, and despite later clarifications, concerns persist that mixed signals could complicate efforts to stabilize the currency. Immediate resistance can be seen at 157.89(Dec 18th high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 159.21(23.6%fib) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 155.37(Daily low) a break below could take the pair towards 154.36 (50%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares edged lower on Wednesday as Novo Nordisk shares fell sharply following a disappointing forecast from the weight-loss drugmaker.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 1.13 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.33 percent, France’s CAC was last up by 0.86 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices rose on Wednesday after the U.S. shot down an Iranian drone and armed Iranian boats approached a U.S.-flagged vessel, raising concerns of a potential escalation between Washington and Tehran ahead of planned talks.
Brent crude oil futures were up 46 cents, or 0.7%, at $67.79 a barrel by 1034 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up 52 cents, or 0.8%, at $63.73.
Gold rose further on Wednesday after recording its biggest daily gain in 17 years in the previous session, as investors sought the safe-haven asset amid renewed U.S.-Iran tensions.
Spot gold was up 2.2%at $5,046.47 per ounce, as of 1218 GMT, building on a 5.9% rise on Tuesday.
U.S. gold futures for April delivery climbed 2.7% to $5,068.90 per ounce.
