Market Roundup
• Australia Building Approvals (MoM) (Dec): -14.9%, -6.2% forecast, 13.1% previous.
• Australia Building Approvals (YoY) (Dec): 0.40%, 19.40% previous.
• Australia Private House Approvals (Dec): 0.4%, 0.8% previous.
• Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (Feb): 3.85%, 3.85% forecast, 3.60% previous.
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•07:45 French CPI (MoM) (Jan): -0.1%, 0.1% previous.
•07:45 French HICP (MoM) (Jan): 0.1%.
•07:45 French CPI (YoY) (Jan): 0.6%, 0.8% previous.
•07:45 French Government Budget Balance (Dec): -155.4B.
•07:45 French HICP (YoY) (Jan): 0.6%, 0.7% previous.
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• No events ahead
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases
• Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro remained steady on Tuesday as investors looked ahead to the European Central Bank’s upcoming monetary policy announcement later this week. The ECB is set to reveal its decision on Thursday, with most market participants expecting interest rates to remain unchanged. At its previous meeting, the central bank held borrowing costs steady for the fourth consecutive session, keeping the Deposit Facility rate at 2%, the Main Refinancing Operations rate at 2.15%, and the Marginal Lending Facility rate at 2.4%. The Governing Council emphasized its commitment to keeping inflation anchored at the 2% target over the medium term, while noting that future interest rate decisions would continue to be assessed and determined on a meeting-by-meeting basis. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1942(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2000(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1804 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1746(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound edged higher on Tuesday as investors focused on this weeks the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy decision. Economic data has stayed strong since the last rate cut, while inflation remains the highest among G7 peers, allowing the BoE to delay further easing. Policymakers were split in the past two meetings, but the upcoming decision is expected to be more clear-cut.Britain’s manufacturing activity hit its highest level since August 2024 in January, driven by the strongest rise in new orders in nearly four years. The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.8 from 50.6 in December, above the flash estimate of 51.6. The data barely changed BoE policy expectations, with markets fully pricing in one 25 bps rate cut in 2026 and about a 50% chance of a second.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3848(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3889(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3651(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3572(50%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar rose on Tuesday following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s first rate hike in two years. The central bank raised its benchmark policy rate by 25 basis points to 3.85% in a unanimous decision, citing faster-than-expected economic growth and inflation likely remaining above target for some time.With this move, the RBA joins the Bank of Japan as one of the only major developed-world central banks currently tightening policy. Markets, in contrast, are still pricing in potential rate cuts in the U.S., UK, and Canada, while the European Central Bank is widely expected to maintain an extended pause. The hike comes just six months after the RBA’s last rate cut in August. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7065(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7108(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6944(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6847 (50%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar hovered near a one-week high on Tuesday as investors assesed Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s recent remarks. Over the weekend, Takaichi described the yen’s depreciation as a “major opportunity” for Japan’s export industries and a buffer against U.S. tariffs, though she later emphasized that she does not favor any specific direction for the currency.On Tuesday, Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama defended Takaichi’s comments, noting that the premier was referencing “textbook” economic principles. Katayama added that Takaichi had acknowledged both the challenges and benefits of a weaker yen, highlighting that it could boost corporate sales through increased domestic investment and make Japanese products more competitive abroad. Immediate resistance can be seen at 156.52(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 157.61(Dec 22nd high) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 154.54(50%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 152.28 (Lower BB).
Equities Recap
Asian stocks rebounded on Tuesday as calmer trade followed volatile metals markets, supported by a strong rise in U.S. factory activity, while the Australian dollar gained after a rate hike.
Hang Seng up 0.14%, Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up by 4.05% ,South Korea’s KOSPI was up at 5.77%
Commodities Recap
Oil prices declined for a second consecutive day on Tuesday, as traders weighed the potential for a de-escalation in U.S.-Iran tensions.
Brent crude futures fell 39 cents, or 0.5%, at $65.91 per barrel at 0330 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $61.83 per barrel, down 31 cents, or 0.5%.
Gold rebounded more than 2% on Tuesday after a sharp selloff that was triggered by the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair and higher margin requirements at CME Group.
Spot gold climbed 2.2% to $4,767.33 per ounce by 0318 GMT, after touching a near one-month low on Monday. Bullion scaled a record high of $5,594.82 on Thursday.
