Market Roundup
•New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (Jan)64.1, 73.6 previous
•New Zealand NBNZ Own Activity (Jan) 51.6%,60.9% previous
•Australia Import Price Index (QoQ) (Q4)0.9%,-0.2%forecast,-0.4% previous
•Australia Export Price Index (QoQ) (Q4) 3.2%,-0.9% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•09:00 EU Loans to Non Financial Corporations (Dec)3.1% previous
•09:00 EU M3 Money Supply (YoY) (Dec)3.0% forecast,3.0% previous
•09:00 EU M3 Money Supply (Dec)17,189.3B previous
•09:00 EU Private Sector Loans (YoY) (Dec) 2.9% forecast,2.9% previous
•10:00 EU Consumer Confidence (Jan): -12.4 forecast, -13.1 previous.
•10:00 EU Consumer Inflation Expectation (Jan): 26.7 previous.
•10:00 EU Industrial Sentiment (Jan): -8.0 forecast, -9.0 previous.
•10:00 EU Selling Price Expectations (Jan): 10.9 previous.
•10:00 EU Services Sentiment (Jan): 6.0 forecast, 5.6 previous.
•10:00 EU Business Climate (Jan): -0.56 previous.
•10:00 EU Business and Consumer Survey (Jan): 97.1 forecast, 96.7 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro firmed on Thursday as dollar weakened on uncertainty over U.S. economic policies and geopolitical moves . On the monetary policy front, the Federal Reserve struck a more sanguine tone on the U.S. labour market and inflation risks overnight, which investors took to imply that rates could be on hold for longer. The dollar was in free fall earlier this week and hit a four-year low after U.S. President Donald Trump seemed to shrug off the currency's weakness, though it found a floor after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said a day later that Washington has a strong-dollar policy. . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2047(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2065(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1939 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1849(50%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling strengthened on Wednesday as dollar remained shaky amid geopolitical and economic uncertainties.The Federal Reserve decided to leave rates unchanged on Wednesday, as widely expected. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said inflation in December was likely still well above the central bank's 2% target.n geopolitical news, U.S. President Donald Trump urged Iran on Wednesday to come to the table and strike a deal on nuclear weapons. He warned that any future U.S. attack would be far more severe than the one last year when Iranian nuclear sites were struck.Tehran responded with a threat to strike back against the U.S., Israel and those who support them. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3848(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3889(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3691(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3572(50%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar hit fresh 3-year higher on Thursday as growing expectations of a probable RBA rate hike continue to fuel bullish sentiment for Australian dollar .Markets expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to deliver a 25-basis-point rate hike next Tuesday after inflation surprised to the upside last quarter. A rate hike by the RBA next Tuesday would mark the first tightening move by a non-Japan G10 central bank in this easing cycle. On the domestic front, Australia’s December-quarter trade data showed a stronger external outlook, with export prices rebounding and import prices rising unexpectedly, boosting terms of trade.Export prices jumped 3.2% q/q in Q4, reversing a 0.9% drop in Q3, while import prices rose 0.9% q/q, beating expectations for a 0.2% fall. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7083(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7108(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.07020(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6958 (38.2%fib)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged lower on Thursday as the yen strengthened on speculation of possible joint US-Japan intervention after the New York Fed’s rate check.Traders remain wary of possible unilateral action by Tokyo, even as BoJ data shows no official market intervention so far.The yen has jumped nearly 4% since Friday without FX intervention, and if Tokyo wants to capitalize on the move, now is the moment to act.The yen surged to a 2.5-month high near 153.00 per dollar on Tuesday after the New York Fed conducted dollar/yen rate checks on Friday at Tokyo’s request.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 154.14(50%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 156.36(38.2%fib) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 152.09(50%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 151.28 (Lower BB).
Equities Recap
Asian tech stocks extended month-long rally on Thursday with optimism over earnings undimmed into Apple's results, while the dollar remained shaky despite verbal support from both U.S. and European officials.
Hang Sang was up 0.40 %, Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up by 0.12% ,South Korea’s KOSPI was up at 0.98%
Commodities Recap
Oil prices climbed over 1.5% in Asian trade on Thursday, extending a third straight day of gains amid rising fears of a potential U.S. strike on Iran that could disrupt regional supply.
Brent crude futures rose 99 cents, or 1.5%, to $69.39 a barrel by 0436 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude climbed $1.06, or 1.7%, to $64.27 a barrel.
Gold surged to a fresh record near $5,600 on Thursday on safe-haven demand, while silver hovered just below $120.
Spot gold shot up 2.6% to $5,538.69 an ounce by 0349GMT, after hitting a record $5,591.61 earlier in the day.
