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Europe Roundup: Sterling eases amid concerns over British parliament's vote on Brexit, euro slumps on soft EZ flash CPI, investors eye Trump-Xi meeting - Friday, November 30th, 2018

Market Roundup

  • Italy Q3 2018 GDP final yy decrease to 0.7 % (forecast 0.8 %) vs previous 0.8 %
     
  • Italy Q3 2018 GDP final qq increase to -0.1 %
     
  • Italy Nov 2018 CPI nsa stays flat at 103 vs previous 103
     
  • Eurozone Nov 2018 CPI nsa decrease to 104.32 vs previous 104.49 (revised from 104.5 )
     
  • Italy Nov 2018 CPI (EU norm) prelim yy stays flat at 1.7 % (forecast 1.6 %) vs previous 1.7 %
     
  • Italy Nov 2018 consumer price prelim yy increase to 1.7 % vs previous 1.6 %
     
  • Italy Nov 2018 CPI (EU norm) prelim mm decrease to -0.2 % (forecast -0.3 %) vs previous 0.2 %
     
  • Italy Nov 2018 consumer price prelim mm increase to -0.1 %
     
  • Eurozone Oct 2018 unemployment rate stays flat at 8.1 % (forecast 8 %) vs previous 8.1 %
     
  • Eurozone Nov 2018 HICP-x f,e,a&t flash yy decrease to 1 % (forecast 1.1 %) vs previous 1.1 %
     
  • Eurozone Nov 2018 HICP-x f&e flash yy decrease to 1.1 % (forecast 1.3 %) vs previous 1.2 %
     
  • Eurozone Nov 2018 HICP flash yy decrease to 2 % (forecast 2 %) vs previous 2.2 %
     
  • Italy Oct 2018 unemployment rate increase to 10.6 % (forecast 10.1 %) vs previous 10.3 % (revised from 10.1 %)
     
  • Switzerland Nov 2018 Kof indicator decrease to 99.1 diff.idx (forecast 99.5 diff.idx) vs previous 100.2 diff.idx (revised from 100.1 diff.idx)
     
  • France Nov 2018 CPI prelim mm nsa decrease to -0.1 % vs previous 0.1 %
     
  • France Nov 2018 CPI (EU norm) prelim mm decrease to -0.1 % vs previous 0.1 %
     
  • France Nov 2018 CPI prelim yy nsa decrease to 1.9 % vs previous 2.2 %
     
  • France Nov 2018 CPI (EU norm) prelim yy decrease to 2.2 % (forecast 2.2 %) vs previous 2.5 %
     

Economic Data Ahead

  • (0830 ET/1330 GMT) The Statistics Canada releases its Raw Material Price Index for the month of October. The index posted a decline of 0.9 percent in September.
     
  • (0830 ET/1330 GMT) The Statistics Canada will report its industrial producer prices for the month of October. The indicator rose 1.0 percent in the prior month.
     
  • (0830 ET/1330 GMT) The Statistics Canada is expected to report that gross domestic product increased at a 2.0 percent annual rate in the third quarter after rising at a 2.9 percent pace in the second quarter.
     
  • (0945 ET/1445 GMT) Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index is likely to show that business conditions eased to 58.0 in November from 58.4 last month.
     
  • (1300 ET/1800 GMT) Baker Hughes reports U.S. Oil Rig Count.
     

Key Events Ahead

  • (0745 ET/1245 GMT) ECB board member Benoit Coeure to moderate a panel discussion in Frankfurt
     
  • (0900 ET/1400 GMT) Federal Reserve Bank of New York releases text of President John Williams's prepared remarks before panel, "The Global Economy: Addressing a Future Downturn" at a closed meeting of the Group of Thirty in New York.

FX Beat

DXY: The dollar index rallied as investors anxiously awaited the outcome of talks between the leaders of the U.S. and China this weekend which could determine whether trade tensions between them will escalate further. The greenback against a basket of currencies trades 0.1 percent up at 96.90, having touched a high of 97.54 on Wednesday, its highest since Nov 13. FxWirePro's Hourly Dollar Strength Index stood at 62.20 (Bullish) by 1000 GMT.

EUR/USD: The euro eased, halting a 2-day winning streak after data showed Eurozone inflation slowed as expected in November as food and energy price hikes eased, while core inflation readings came in below market estimates. The European currency traded 0.2 percent down at 1.1369, having touched a high of 1.1401 on Thursday, its highest since Nov. 23. FxWirePro's Hourly Euro Strength Index stood at 34.13 (Neutral) by 1000 GMT. Immediate resistance is located at 1.1420 (November 16 High), a break above targets 1.1472 (November 20 High). On the downside, support is seen at 1.1325 (November 14 Low), a break below could drag it till 1.1263 (November 26 Low).

USD/JPY: The dollar declined against the Japanese yen after U.S. President Donald Trump sent mixed signals about the prospects for a trade deal with Beijing, stating that an agreement was close but he was not sure he wanted one. The major was trading 0.05 percent down at 113.45, having hit a high of 114.03 on Wednesday, its highest since November 13. FxWirePro's Hourly Yen Strength Index stood at -7.13 (Neutral) by 0400 GMT. Investors’ will continue to track the broad-based market sentiment, ahead of the Chicago purchasing manager' index and FOMC member Williams speech. Immediate resistance is located at 113.70 (November 15 High), a break above targets 114.14 (November 13 High). On the downside, support is seen at 113.09 (November 15 Low), a break below could take it lower 112.64 (November 16 Low).

GBP/USD: Sterling slumped, extending previous session losses, as investors turned cautious ahead of the British parliament's vote on Brexit next month. On Thursday, Prime Minister Theresa May stated that she was focused on persuading lawmakers to back her deal with the European Union in a December 11 vote. The major traded 0.2 percent down at 1.2755, having hit a low of 1.2725 on Tuesday; it’s lowest since November 15. FxWirePro's Hourly Sterling Strength Index stood at -127.75 (Highly Bearish) 1000 GMT. Immediate resistance is located at 1.2819 (November 27 High), a break above could take it near 1.2884 (November 19 High). On the downside, support is seen at 1.2725 (November 27 Low), a break below targets 1.2695 (October 30 Low). Against the euro, the pound was trading 0.1 percent down at 89.16 pence, having hit a low of 89.20 earlier, it’s lowest since Nov. 22.

USD/CHF: The Swiss franc eased, as the greenback surged ahead of a weekend meeting between the U.S. and Chinese presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. The major trades 0.2 percent up at 0.9970, having touched a high of 1.0005 on Wednesday; it’s highest since Nov. 19. FxWirePro's Hourly Swiss Franc Strength Index stood at -6.51 (Neutral) by 1000 GMT. On the higher side, near-term resistance is around 1.0026 (Oct. 26 High) and any break above will take the pair to next level till 1.0050 (Nov. 7 High). The near-term support is around 0.9908 (November 20 Low), and any close below that level will drag it till 0.9881 (October 12 Low).

Equities Recap

European shares tumbled, as downbeat Chinease data rekindled tensions over slowing growth, while investors remained cautious ahead of the crucial G20 talks between U.S. President Trump and China's Xi Jinping over trade.

The pan-European STOXX 600 index plunged 0.4 percent at 356.70 points, while the FTSEurofirst 300 index slumped 0.4 percent to 1,406.03 points.

Britain's FTSE 100 trades 0.6 percent down at 6,993.04 points, while mid-cap FTSE 250 surged 0.5 declined to 18,500.87 points.

Germany's DAX fell 0.5 percent at 11,238.85 points; France's CAC 40 trades 0.8 percent lower at 4,984.94 points.

Commodities Recap

Crude oil prices eased as rising inventories dented market sentiment, however, expectations that OPEC and Russia would agree some form of production cut next week limited downside. International benchmark Brent crude was trading 0.2 percent down at $59.22 per barrel by 1030 GMT, having hit a low of $57.48 on Thursday, its lowest since October 2017. U.S. West Texas Intermediate was trading 1.1 percent down at $50.69 a barrel, after falling as low as $49.44 on Thursday, its lowest since the October 2017.

Gold prices slumped, reversing some of its previous session as U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping are expected to discuss trade on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Argentina. Spot gold was trading 0.2 percent down at $1,221.33 per ounce at 1035 GMT, having touched a high of $1,228.86 on Thursday, its highest level since Nov. 22. U.S. gold futures inched lower to $1,228.7 an ounce.

Treasuries Recap

The U.S. Treasuries traded range-bound during late afternoon session ahead of President Donald Trump’s weekend showdown with Xi in Buenos Aires for the meeting with Chinese Xi. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasuries slipped 1-1/2 basis point to 3.019 percent, the super-long 30-year bond yields also fell 1-1/2 basis points to 3.312 percent and the yield on the short-term 2-year traded flat at 2.813 percent.

The United Kingdom’s gilts traded mixed during afternoon session amid a muted day that witnessed data of little economic significance ahead of the G20 summit which shall provide further direction to the debt market. The yield on the benchmark 10-year gilts, fell 2 basis points to 1.347 percent, the super-long 30-year bond yields rose nearly 1-1/2 basis points to 2.017 percent and the yield on the short-term 2-year traded tad higher at 0.748 percent.

The German bunds gained slightly during European session after Eurozone’s consumer price inflation (CPI) for the month of November disappointed market participants. The German 10-year bond yields, which move inversely to its price, slipped nearly 1 basis point to 0.315 percent, the yield on 30-year note also remained tad lower at 0.991 percent and the yield on short-term 2-year traded nearly flat at -0.598 percent.

The Australian government bonds climbed during Asian session tracking a similar movement in the United States counterpart after the Federal Reserve’s November monetary policy meeting minutes re-affirmed the case for continued interest rate hikes. The yield on Australia’s benchmark 10-year note, which moves inversely to its price, fell 2 basis points to 2.590 percent, the yield on the long-term 30-year bond also slumped 2 basis points to 3.116 percent and the yield on short-term 2-year traded 1 basis point lower at 2.001 percent.

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March 20 11:00 UTC Released

PTCurrent Account Balance

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-0.741 Bln EU

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-1.23 Bln EU

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1.2 %

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-1.4 %

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-1541 %

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