Market Roundup
•UK Retail Feb Sales (YoY) -0.4%,-0.7% forecast, 0.7% previous
•German Jan Import Price Index (YoY) -5.9%,-7.4% forecast, -8.5% previous
•German Jan Import Price Index (MoM) 0.0%, -0.4% forecast, -1.1% previous
•UK Feb Retail Sales (MoM) 0.0%,-0.4% forecast,3.4% previous
•UK Feb Core Retail Sales (MoM) 0.2%, -0.1% forecast, 3.2% previous
•German Mar Business Expectations 87.5, 84.7 forecast, 84.1 previous
•German Mar German Ifo Business Climate Index 87.8,85.9 forecast, 85.5 previous
•Canada Jan Retail Sales (MoM) -0.3%,-0.4% forecast,0.9% previous
•Canada Jan Core Retail Sales (MoM) 0.5%,-0.4% forecast,0.6% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 14:00 Belgium Mar NBB Business Climate -12.4 forecast, -12.8 previous
•15:00 Canada Jan Budget Balance -4.47B previous
•15:00 Canada Jan Budget Balance (YoY)-23.61B previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 510 previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 629 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•17:00 ECB's Lane Speaks
•16:00 US Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro declined against dollar on Friday as investors awaited comments from European Central Bank policymakers later in the day. ECB's chief economist Philip Lane will speak on inflation and monetary policy later in the day, while the focus will also be on comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde, who is participating in the Euro Summit in Brussels. German business morale improved in March by more than expected, a survey showed. The Ifo institute said its business climate index stood at 87.8, compared with a reading of 86.0 forecast by analysts in a s poll. The euro was down 0.4% at $1.0819 . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0868(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0951 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0812(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0778 (Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound fell to its lowest so far this month on Friday, after data showed UK consumer spending stagnated in February and Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey said rate cuts "were in play" this year. On Thursday, the BoE left interest rates unchanged, but in its statement, it suggested it was edging towards making a change to monetary policy.Furthermore, two members of the Monetary Policy Committee that had previously voted to raise rates instead voted to maintain them - a decision many in the market had not expected. Separately, British retail sales stagnated in February after rising by a revised 3.6% January, figures from the Office for National Statistics showed on Friday. Sterling fell 0.6% to $1.262, its lowest since March 1.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2673(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2729 (March 19th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2567(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2485(61.8%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar rose against the Swiss franc on Friday as surprise cut in Switzerland highlighting the gap between the Federal Reserve and others in interest rate settings.The Swiss National Bank cut its main interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.50% on Thursday, a surprise move which made it the first major central bank to dial back tighter monetary policy aimed at tackling inflation. The SNB move wrong-footed markets, sending the Swiss franc to an eight-month low against the euro and Swiss government bond yields, opens new tab tumbling. A majority of analysts polled had expected the usually conservative SNB to keep rates on hold at 1.75% and wait at least another three months before moving. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9023(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9050(Nov 13th 2023 high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8970(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8921(38.2%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar eased against yen on Friday following the release of Japanese consumer inflation data.. Japan's core inflation accelerated in February but an index gauging the broader price trend slowed sharply, data showed, highlighting uncertainty on how soon the central bank will hike interest rates again. The core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes fresh foods but includes energy items, rose 2.8% in February from a year earlier, government data showed, matching median market forecasts. BOJ Governor Ueda said on Tuesday the central bank could hike rates again if inflation overshoots expectations or upside risks to the price outlook heighten significantly.Strong resistance can be seen at 151.91 (23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 152.39(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 150.85(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 150.12(50%fib)
Equities Recap
European shares were largely flat on Friday but maintained record highs as gains in the telecommunications sector were offset by losses in technology shares, while investors awaited comments from European Central Bank policymakers later in the day.
At (GMT 12:42 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.53 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.17 percent, France’s CAC finished was down by 0.37 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices edged higher on Friday and were set for a fourth weekly rise in five after the U.S. Federal Reserve maintained its interest rate cut projections for the year, boosting investor sentiment.
Spot gold was up 0.1% at $2,183.93 per ounce, as of 0117 GMT, after hitting an all-time high on Thursday. Bullion has risen 1.3% so far this week.U.S. gold futures were also up 0.1% at $2,186 per ounce.
Oil prices were little changed on Friday, with global benchmark Brent hovering above $85 per barrel, as the possibility of a ceasefire in Gaza gained traction.
Brent crude futures were down 2 cents to $85.76 a barrel by 1017 GMT. U.S. crude futures were up 1 cent at $81.08 per barrel.
