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Europe Roundup: Euro gains as ECB removes barriers in crisis fighting purchases, European stocks drop, Gold dips, Oil falls as sinking demand outweighs stimulus hopes-March 26th,2020

Market Roundup

• UK Feb Core Retail Sales (MoM)  0.5%,1.1% forecast, 1.3% previous

• UK Feb Core Retail Sales (MoM ) -0.5%    , -0.2% forecast, 1.8% previous
    
• UK Feb Retail Sales (MoM) -0.3%,0.2%    forecast, 1.1% previous    

• UK Feb Retail Sales (YoY) 0.0%,0.8%  forecast, 0.9% previous    

• German April GfK German Consumer Climate  2.7, 7.1 forecast,  8.3 previous

• UK March BoE QE Total  645B, 435B forecast, 645B previous

• UK March BoE Interest Rate Decision 0.10%,0.10% forecast, 0.10% previous

• US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,803K, 1,702K previous

• US Core PCE Prices (Q4) 1.30%,1.20% forecast, 1.20% previous    

• US GDP (QoQ) (Q4) 2.1%,2.1% forecast    , 2.1% previous    

• US GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q4)    1.4%,1.3% forecast, 1.3% previous    

• US Feb Goods Trade Balance  -59.89B, -65.90B previous    

• US Initial Jobless Claims    3,283K, 1,650K forecast,  282K previous

Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)    

• 14:30 US Natural Gas Storage    -25B, -9B previous

• 15:00 US March KC Fed Composite Index 5 previous    

• 15:00 US March KC Fed Manufacturing Index 8  previous  
             
Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT)

• No significant events

Fxbeat

EUR/USD: The euro strengthened on Thursday after the European Central Bank said it will not apply its self-imposed purchase limits on a 750 billion euro coronavirus crisis-fighting bond purchase scheme. The ECB also said it would buy debt with maturity as short as 70 days, compared with one year under previous purchases. The single currency was also boosted after the German lower house on Wednesday suspended the country’s constitutionally enshrined debt brake, approving a massive stimulus package by Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0891 (61.8% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1051 (21 DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0919 (50% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0853 (38.2% fib).

GBP/USD: Sterling extended gains against the dollar on Thursday, before an expected show of support for the British economy from the Bank of England and the government to limit the economic hit from the coronavirus outbreak. The BoE, which made two emergency rate cuts and ramped up its bond-buying programme this month. The pound rose versus the greenback on Thursday after two previous days of gains and was last up 0.5% at $1.1987. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1978 (61.8% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2000 (Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1831 (50% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1698(38.2% fib).

USD/CHF: The dollar declined against the Swiss franc on Thursday after data showed a surge in Americans filing for benefits as businesses close across the country in an attempt to curb the spread of the virus. The number of Americans filing claims for unemployment benefits shot to record of more than 3 million last week as strict measures to contain the coronavirus pandemic ground the country to a sudden halt. Initial claims for unemployment benefits rose to 3.28 million in the latest week from a revised 282,000 the previous week, eclipsing the previous record of 695,000 set in 1982. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9741(61.8% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9775 (Daily high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9693 (50% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9646 (38.2% fib).

USD/JPY: The dollar declined against the Japanese yen Thursday as concerns of economic carnage from the coronavirus pandemic outweighed a $2 trillion U.S. stimulus package. Global markets have lost about a quarter of their value in the last six weeks of virus-driven selling.And while markets have found a measure of sustenance as governments and central banks launch unprecedented support measures, investors were struggling to work out how bad the coronavirus impact would be. Investors are also continuing to absorb the Federal Reserve’s unprecedented announcement on Monday that it would launch unlimited quantitative easing, and how that will impact the greenback. Strong resistance can be seen at 110 .23 (50% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 111.11 (38.2% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 109.35 (61.8 % fib), a break below could take the pair towards 109.00 (Psychological level). 

Equities Recap

European shares fell on Thursday after gaining for two straight sessions, as the still rapidly spreading coronavirus and fears of a deep global recession overshadowed optimism from a historic $2 trillion U.S. fiscal stimulus deal.

At (GMT 13:02),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 2.03 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 2.10 percent, France’s CAC finished was down by 1.91 percent.

Commodities Recap

Gold steadied on Thursday, paring losses from a 1% dip earlier in the session, as the dollar’s rally faded.

Spot gold was little changed at $1,612.14 per ounce by 1102 GMT. U.S. gold futures fell 0.3% to $1,629.20 per ounce, retreating from a rally to $1,699.30 on Wednesday, but held above the London spot contract.                                        
Oil prices fell on Thursday, after three sessions of gains, as plunging demand due to restrictions on movement worldwide to contain the coronavirus overshadowed expectations that a $2 trillion U.S. stimulus package will bolster economic activity.

Brent crude futures fell 35 cents, or 1.3%, to $27.04 a barrel by 1250 GMT. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures dropped 79 cents, or 3.1%, to $23.70 a barrel. Both contracts are down about 60% this year.    

Treasuries Recap

Italian government bond yields fell across the curve on Thursday after the European Central Bank said it will not apply its self-imposed purchase limits on a 750 billion euro coronavirus crisis-fighting bond purchase scheme.

Short-dated Italian bonds were the biggest beneficiary, with yields plunging 12 bps to 0.40% after rocketing to a more than one-year high above 2% last week. Italian 10-year bond yields fell 7 bps to 1.49%, a near two-week low.            
 

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