Market Roundup
• German Oct Factory Orders (MoM) 2.9%,1.5% forecast, 0.5% previous
• French Oct Government Budget Balance -159.9B, -161.6B previous
• German Nov IHS Markit Construction PMI 45.6, 45.2 previous
• Italian Oct Retail Sales (MoM) 0.6%,-0.8% previous
• Italian Oct Retail Sales (YoY) 2.9%, 1.3% previous
• UK Nov Construction PMI 54.7, 52.0 forecast, 53.1 previous
• Irish GNP (YoY) (Q3) -3.7%, -2.5% previous
•Irish GNP (QoQ) (Q3) -1.9%,-7.4% previous
Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)
•13:30 US Nov Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (YoY) 4.3% forecast,4.5 previous
• 13:30 US Nov Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) 0.1% forecast, 0.1% previous
• 13:30 US Nov Average Weekly Hours 34.8, 34.8 previous
• 13:30 US Nov Government Payrolls -268.0K previous
• 13:30 US Nov Manufacturing Payrolls 43K forecast, 38K previous
• 13:30 US Nov Nonfarm Payrolls 469K forecast, 638K previous
• 13:30 US Nov Participation Rate 61.7% previous
• 13:30 US Nov Private Nonfarm Payrolls 589K forecast, 906K previous
• 13:30 US Nov U6 Unemployment Rate 12.1% previous
• 13:30 US Nov Unemployment Rate 6.8% forecast, 6.9% previous
• 13:30 US Exports 176.40B previous
•13:30 US Imports 240.20B previous
•13:30 Canada Oct Exports 45.25B forecast, 45.54B previous
•13:30 Canada Oct Imports 47.90B48.79B, 48.79B previous
•13:30 US Oct Trade Balance -64.80B forecast, -63.90B pevious
• 13:30 Canada Nov Employment Change 20.0K forecast, 83.6K previous
• 13:30 Canada Nov Full Employment Change 69.1K previous
• 13:30 Canada Nov Part Time Employment Change 14.5K previous
• 13:30 Canada Nov Participation Rate 65.2% forecast, 65.2% previous
• 13:30 Canada Nov Unemployment Rate 8.9% forecast, 8.9% previous
• 15:00 US Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) 0.2% previous
•15:00 US Oct Factory Orders (MoM) 0.8% forecast,1.1% previous
•15:00 US Oct Factory orders ex transportation (MoM) 0.5% previous
Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT)
• No significant events
Fxbeat
EUR/USD: The euro rose against dollar on Friday as investors piled into bets the U.S. dollar has further to fall. The common currency is up 1.5% for the week so far and last sat comfortably at $1.2145. Investors have turned heavily short dollars in recent months, figuring rates will stay low for a long time in the United States forcing yield-seekers to head elsewhere for better returns. Even worries about a painful winter of deaths and lockdowns in the United States has failed to drive too much safe-haven demand for dollars. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2157 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2200(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2138(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.12122(38.2% fib).
GBP/USD: The pound retreating from the one-year high against dollar on Friday as growing scepticism that Britain will be able to clinch a post-Brexit trade deal with the European Union kept gains in check. The EU is still negotiating a trade deal with Britain, European Council President Charles Michel said on Friday morning.The next event to eye is the European Council meeting on Dec. 10, with many self-imposed deadlines broken and issues such as fisheries and level playing field still hanging. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3464 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3500(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3395 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3330 (50 % fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar declined against the Swiss franc on Friday as investors bet the U.S. currency is likely to fall further . A flurry of positive vaccine news has helped drive a rally in riskier currencies, while actions taken by the Federal Reserve have weakened the dollar.The dollar index dropped to a two-and-a-half-year low of 90.504 on Thursday and is on track for a more than 1% fall over the week. It edged down 0.1% on the day at 90.578. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8995 (50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8925 (61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8887 (38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8874 (23.6%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar edged higher against the Japanese yen on Friday as growing prospects for a U.S. economic stimulus package and the roll-out of COVID-19 vaccines improved market sentiment. A bipartisan, $908 billion coronavirus aid plan gained momentum in the U.S. Congress on Thursday as conservative lawmakers expressed their support. The U.S. Federal Reserve is also expected to tweak guidance on its asset-purchase scheme later this month. Investors will get a further indication of how the U.S. economy is holding up at 1330 GMT, with monthly payrolls data expected to show employment growth, but at a slower pace. Strong resistance can be seen at 104.18(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 104.34 (21DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 103.66 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 103.00 (Psychological level).
Equities Recap
European shares rose on Friday, with energy stocks lifting London’s blue-chip index to nine-month highs, while BioNtech slid after Pfizer slashed the roll-out target of their COVID-19 vaccine..
At (GMT 12:40 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.79 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.04 percent, France’s CAC finished was up by 0.33 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices steadied in a tight range on Friday and were set for their first weekly gain in four as the dollar weakened on expectations of additional U.S. stimulus.
Spot gold was little changed at $1,838.44 per ounce by 1131 GMT, and has added about 3% so far this week. U.S. gold futures were up 0.1% at $1,842.50.
Brent crude oil futures rose to just under $50 a barrel on Friday as major producers agreed on a compromise to increase output slightly from January but continue the bulk of existing supply curbs to cope with coronavirus-hit demand.
Brent was up 53 cents at $49.24 a barrel by 1034 GMT after hitting its highest since early March at $49.92. West Texas Intermediate rose 47 cents to $46.11 a barrel. Both benchmarks are set for a fifth straight week of gains.
