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Europe Roundup: Euro fall on weak German ZEW economic sentiment ,European shares gain, Gold extends losses, Oil extends losses as weak demand outlook persists-August 16th,2022

Market Roundup

•UK Jun Unemployment Rate 3.8%, 3.8% forecast, 3.8% previous

•UK Jun  Employment Change 3M/3M (MoM) 160K,256K forecast, 296K previous

•UK Jun  Average Earnings Index +Bonus  5.1%, 4.5% forecast, 6.2% previous

•UK Jun  Average Earnings ex Bonus  4.7%,4.5% forecast, 4.3% previous

•UK Jul Claimant Count Change -10.5K, -32.0K forecast, -20.0K previous

•UK Labour Productivity 0.0%,  -0.8% previous

•German Aug ZEW Current Conditions   -47.6, -48.0 forecast, -45.8 previous

•German Aug ZEW Economic Sentiment  -55.3,-53.8 forecast, -53.8 previous

• EU Jun Trade Balance -24.6B, -20.0B forecast, -26.3B previous

•German Aug ZEW Economic Sentiment -54.9 -57.0 forecast, -51.1 previous

•Canada Trimmed CPI (YoY) 5.4%, 5.5% previous

•Canada Median CPI (YoY) 5.0%                , 4.9% previous

•Canada Common CPI (YoY) 5.5% ,4.6% previous

•US Jul Building Permits 1.674M,1.650M forecast, 1.696M previous

•Canada Jul CPI (MoM) 0.1%, 0.1% forecast, 0.7% previous

 •US Jun Foreign Securities Purchases  -17.54B,23.75B forecast ,2.35B previous

•US Jul Housing Starts (MoM) -9.6%, -2.0% previous

•Canada Jul Core CPI (YoY) 6.1%, 6.2% previous

•Canada Jul Core CPI (MoM)  0.5%, 0.3% previous

Looking Ahead – Economic data (GMT)

•13:00 French 6-Month BTF Auction 0.177% previous

•13:00   French 3-Month BTF Auction 0.053% previous

•13:00   French 12-Month BTF Auction 0.545% previous

•13:15 US Jul Manufacturing Production (MoM)  0.2% forecast, -0.5% previous

•13:15 US Jul Industrial Production (YoY)  4.16% previous

•13:15 US Jul Capacity Utilization Rate 80.1% forecast, 80.0% previous

•13:15 US Jul Industrial Production (MoM) 0.3%                forecast, -0.2% previous

•15:00 GlobalDairyTrade Price Index  -5.0% previous

Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT)

• No significant events


EUR/USD: The euro declined on Tuesday after data showed German investor morale fell in August . German investor sentiment fell slightly in August on concerns the rising cost of living will hit private consumption, and suggesting Europe's largest economy is tipping into recession. The ZEW economic research institute said on Tuesday its economic sentiment index fell to -55.3 points from -53.8 in July. A poll had pointed to an August reading of -53.8. A ZEW index on German current conditions fell to -47.6 from -45.8 in the prior month. The euro, the most heavily weighted currency in the dollar index, dropped 0.28% to 1.01305. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0168(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0233(5DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0101(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0079(Lower BB).

GBP/USD: The British pound declined against dollar on Tuesday after mixed data showed a jobs market that is still hot, although some early signs it may be starting to cool. Britain’s unemployment rate held close to a half-century low, but the number of people employed grew less than expected in a Reuters poll and the number of job vacancies fell for the first time since mid-2020, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said. Wages, not including bonuses, rose by 4.7%, above expectations of 4.5%. But the real value of pay, not including bonuses, dropped faster than at any time since records began in 2001, the ONS said, amid surging inflation. The pound was flat at $1.2051, after earlier dropping to its lowest level since Aug. 5 at $1.2008. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2093(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2125(5DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1963(23.6%fib),a break below could take the pair towards 1.1947 (Lower BB).

 USD/CHF: The dollar rose higher against the Swiss franc on Tuesday as dollar was   lifted   following weak Chinese and U.S. economic data that stoked fears of a global recession. Investors' latest move to the safety of the dollar came after the raft of weak global economic indicators. The U.S. economy contracted in the first and second quarters, amplifying a debate over whether the country is, or will soon be, in recession. The dollar briefly hit a one-week high as investors piled back in having ditched the greenback last week following lower-then-expected U.S. inflation data. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against six major peers, rose as high as 106.87, its strongest since Aug. 8. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9517(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9567(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9484 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9440(5DMA)

USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against yen on Tuesday as benefited from a disappointing set of economic data out of China and a surprise rate cut by the country’s central bank. Data on Monday showed U.S. single-family home builders' confidence and New York state factory activity fell in August to their lowest levels since near the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. Industrial output in China expanded at 3.8% in July from year-ago levels, slowing from a 3.9% rise in the prior month.  Meanwhile, Fed officials have maintained a hawkish tone and hinted at more rate hikes down the year to tame high inflation. Investors now await minutes from the Fed's July meeting due on Wednesday for clues on further rate hikes. Strong resistance can be seen at 134.58(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 135.28(Aug 10th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 133.62(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 132.91 (38.2%fib).


European stocks edged higher on Tuesday as disappointing data from the United States led to speculation of the Federal Reserve slowing down on rate hikes.

At (GMT 12:35),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.60% percent, Germany's Dax was up by  0.38% percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.23% percent

Commodities Recap

Gold extended losses on Tuesday after posting its biggest drop in a month in the previous session, as a stronger dollar dented bullion’s appeal, while investors watched for signs of further policy tightening by the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Spot gold fell 0.2% to $1,775.30 per ounce by 0909 GMT, after falling more than 1% on Monday. U.S. gold futures dropped 0.4% to $1,790.20.

Oil prices fell on Tuesday as bleak economic data from top crude buyer China renewed concerns of a global recession and the market monitored talks on a reviving deal that could allow more Iranian oil exports.

Brent crude futures fell 84 cents, or 0.9%, to $94.26 a barrel by 0953 GMT. WTI crude futures dipped 45 cents, or 0.5%, to $88.96 a barrel. The oil future benchmarks fell about 3% in their previous sessions.

  • Market Data

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