FxWirePro: Sterling jitters on prolonged Brexit dust and cyclical effects – GBP OTC tools indicate momentary relief but bearish hedging sentiment still prevails
Asia Roundup: Antipodeans near 4-month peak, dollar hits 4-month low against yen on BoJ optimism, Asian shares touch all-time high - Monday, January 15th, 2018
FxWirePro: USD/CAD shooting star nudges slumps below 7-DMA again, short hedges in line with expectations
FxWirePro: GBP/USD RRs versus cash, deploy diagonal options straps as cable to knock along humps & troughs amid bearish/bullish scenarios
FxWirePro: EMEA exports and FX radar - Uphold conviction longs in CZK among outright derivatives trades
Asia Roundup: Aussie rallies on better-than-expected housing data, dollar eases against yen after BoJ trims JGBs, Asian shares nudge higher - Tuesday, January 9th, 2018
Americas Roundup: Dollar drops against currency basket after modest recovery, Wall Street gains, Gold steadies, Oil at highest since 2015 on inventory drawdown, Iran unrest-January 5th, 2018
Europe Roundup: Sterling rebounds on upbeat economic data, euro gains as EZ service PMI surpasses expectations, oil hits highest since mid-2015 - Thursday, January 4th, 2018
Europe Roundup: Sterling eases as investors eye UK cabinet reshuffle, euro off highs on profit-taking, European shares hit over 2-year peak - Monday, January 8th, 2018
Americas Roundup: Dollar index hits one-week high as euro falters, Wall Street slightly higher, U.S. bond prices gain ahead of auctions, Gold dips further from 3-1/2-month peak-January 9th, 2018
FxWirePro: WTI crude bulls still linger above 3y highs despite gravestone doji evidences failure swings at channel resistance, Uphold long hedges
Europe Roundup: Sterling hits 2-weeks low on Brexit uncertainty, dollar rebounds after China dismisses U.S. bonds report, European shares slump - Thursday, January 11th, 2018
Americas Roundup: Dollar index hits 11-day high, Sterling snaps 3-day climb, Wall Street rises to record highs again, extends 2018 rally, U.S. crude hits 3-year high as prices climb in tight market-January 10th, 2018
FxWirePro: Winter season, geopolitical risks supportive to crude’s demand/supply equation – Add long NYMEX WTI vs ICE Brent spreads of mid-month tenors
Europe Roundup: Euro FX bulls resume but EUROSTOXX edgy, Sterling prolongs consolidation over Brexit talks, DXY eases but Yen edgy ahead of BoJ - Wednesday, December 19th, 2017
Economic Data Ahead
Key Events Ahead
• (13:00 GMT) Bundesbank’s Weidmann speaks about the challenges of the EZ economy
• (13:15 GMT) BOE’s Carney and other BOE officials to attend Treasury Select Committee Hearing –
• (13:45 GMT) FedTrade operation 30-year Ginnie Mae (max $1.295 bn)
• (14:00 GMT) BOE’s Angeloni speaks to Parliamentary Inquiry Committee
• (15:45 GMT) FedTrade operation 15-year Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac (max $370 mn)
• (21:30 GMT) BOE’s Hauser to attend NY Fed event
• Bank of Japan holds monetary policy meeting (to December 21)
DXY: Major trend line resistance- 94 (trend line joining 102.97 and 101.26). DXY is trading within the channel for the past 1-1/2 month. It has formed a bottom around 91.02 and shown a minor jump till 95.15 Nov 7th 2017. It is currently trading around 93.45.
Technically the pair has taken support near 100- day MA at 93.32 and shown a minor jump. The index should break below that level for minor decline till 92.90 (trend line joining 91 and 92.50).
The huge jump on the higher side is possible only above trend line resistance at 94.05. The index should close on the daily basis above 94.05 for further jump till 95.15. Short-term trend reversal only above 95.25 (38.2% retracement) and any violation above will take the pair to 96/97.50.
EUR/USD: The pair jumped almost 80 pips from the low of 1.17765 made yesterday. US Senate passed the major tax reform today but doesn’t have much impact on the price of US dollar. Consequently, surged till 1.18580 at the time of writing and is currently trading around 1.17992. Euro rallied sharply on account of rise in 10-year German bund yield. The yield rose 7 pts yesterday from 0.30 to 0.37%.
Technically, the pair is facing strong resistance at 1.1860 (trend line joining 1.19612 and 1.19404) and any minor bullishness can be seen only above that level. Any convincing break above 1.1860 will take the pair to next level until 1.1900/19612 (Nov 27th 2017 high).
On the lower side, major support is around 1.1700 and any break below will drag the pair to next level until 1.1660/1.1600. The minor support is around 1.1755.
USD/JPY: This pair has recovered almost 100 pips after hitting low of 112.03 on Dec 15th 2017. The pair hits high of 113.18 and is currently trading around 113.14.
On the lower side, any close below 111 confirms minor weakness, a decline till 110/108.15 likely. The minor support is around 112.90 (55- 4H EMA).
Any convincing close above 114 will take the pair to next level till 114.73/115.
GBP/USD: Cable is consolidating in the narrow range between 1.35194 and 1.33029 for the past 7 trading session. The UK and EU have reached the deal for the first phase on Friday and next phase on trade negotiations is expected to happen very soon. The pair has recovered almost 100 pips from the low of 1.33029 made on Dec 15th 2017 and is currently trading around 1.3380.
The UK full cabinet discussion on the trading relationship is expected to happen today in continuation with preliminary discussion happened yesterday. Any positive move on the next phase will take the pair to the year high at 1.35498.
On the lower side, near-term support is around 1.3300 and any break below will drag the pair to next level until 1.3225/1.3175. Short term bullish invalidation only below 1.30280.
The near-term resistance is around 1.3420 (trend line joining 1.35204 and 1.34654) and any break above will take the pair to next level till 1.3470/1.3520. Bullish continuation only above 1.3550.
USD/CHF: USD/CHF was trading flat and declined almost 40 pips from the yesterday high of 0.98787. The pair is consolidating below 78.6% retracement at 0.9975. The pair was trading low due to the slight weakness in US dollar index. The Senate passed a landmark US tax bill early Wednesday and the bill now needs approval from House of Representatives later Wednesday before signing by US president Donald Trump. US housing starts came at better than expected. It came at 1.297 million in Nov compared to the forecast of 1.25 million. The pair hits low of 0.98348 yesterday and is currently trading around 0.98536.
On the higher side, near-term resistance is around 0.99220 (trend line joining 0.9977 and 0.99345) and any break above will take the pair to next level till 0.9977 (Dec 8th 2017 high)/1.000. It should break above 1.0040 for short-term bullishness. The near-term support is around 0.9835 and any violation below that level will drag the pair to next level till 0.9810 (200 – day EMA)/0.9770/0.9735.
AUD/USD: Aussie is consolidating after hitting high of 0.76946 on Dec 15th 2017. The pair is trading flat only 40 pips for the past three trading session. It is currently trading around 0.76734 0.15% higher. On the lower side, the pair’s near-term support is around 0.7500 and any convincing break below will drag the pair till 0.7435/0.7380. The near-term support is around 0.76788.
The pair’s near-term resistance is around 0.7681 (233- day MA) and any convincing break above targets 0.7730/0.7780.
European stocks slid by 0.38%, losing its multi-week highs, while the greenback edged down 0.2 percent to 113.11 yen, while the euro was a touch firmer at $1.1850.
The pan-European STOXX 50 index declined to 14.68 points.
Britain's FTSE 100 trades 0.18 pct down at 7,530.25 points on bouncing back after heavy losses in the previous session due to resurfacing political worries, Germany's DAX eased 0.19 pct at 13,190.20 points; France's CAC40 trades 0.31 pct down at 5,366.36 points.
Energy: Crude oil price inches up on North Sea pipeline outage, lower US crude stocks
Crude oil prices edged up, extending previous session gains, as the Forties pipeline outage in the North Sea and OPEC-led supply cuts supported prices. International benchmark Brent crude was trading a tad below 0.04 pct at $63.76 per barrel while articulating (at 11:06 GMT), having hit a high of $65.80 last week, its highest since Jul. 2015. U.S. West Texas Intermediate was trading 0.3 pct higher at $57.73 a barrel, after rising as high as $58.53 last week, its highest since Dec. 1.
Bullion prices: Gold prices edge up in range-bound trade
Gold prices inched higher in range-bound trade on Wednesday as the dollar held steady on expectations the U.S. government would pass the country's biggest tax overhaul in 30 years. Outgoing Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen last week said while a short-term economic bump from the plan is likely, a longer-term boost is not.
The U.S. Treasuries gained Wednesday as investors wait to watch the final House tax reform bill vote, teeing it up to receive the President’s signature by Christmas. Data-wise, it will be a quiet day with just November’s existing home sales figures, which are expected to post a third successive monthly increase to move back within the range seen throughout the first half of the year. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasuries fell 1 basis point to 2.45 pct, the super-long 30-year bond yields slid 1/2 basis point to 2.81 pct while the yield on the short-term 2-year hovered around 1.85 pct.
Japanese government bonds (JGBs) fell on Wednesday after the Bank of Japan reduces the size of bonds purchases in its daily market operation. Also, investors await the last monetary policy meeting of 2017, which is scheduled to be held on Thursday. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves inversely to its price, climbed 1 basis point to 0.049 pct, the yield on new long-term 40-year also rose nearly 1 basis point to 0.967 pct and the yield on short-term 2-year gained 1/2 basis point at -0.144 pct.
The UK gilts traded flat Wednesday as investors wait to watch Bank of England (BoE) Governor Mark Carney’s speech, scheduled to be held later today. Also, the country’s third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP), due on the last trading day of this week prior to Christmas and New Year holidays, will provide further direction to the debt market. The yield on the benchmark 10-year gilts, jumped nearly 2-1/2 basis points to 1.22 pct, the super-long 30-year bond yields climbed 2 basis points to 1.80 pct and the yield on the short-term 2-year too traded 1-1/2 basis points higher at 0.47 pct.
The German bunds remained narrowly mixed Wednesday as investors remained silent in a muted trading session and following the tad deterioration in the country’s producer price-led inflation index for the month of November. The German 10-year bond yields, which move inversely to its price, remained tad higher at 0.38 pct, the yield on 30-year note hovered around 1.19 pct and the yield on short-term 2-year traded nearly 2 basis points higher at -0.67 pct.
New Zealand government bonds closed on the upside Wednesday after the country’s Global Dairy Trade (GDT) price auction disappointed market participants. Also, investors are expecting a decline in the third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data, due today at 21:45GMT which weighed on the debt market. At the time of closing, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves inversely to its price, fell 1 basis point to 2.74 pct, the yield on 20-year also slipped 1 basis point to 3.28 pct and the yield on short-term 2-year too ended 1 basis point lower at 1.91 pct.
Australian government bonds plunged on Wednesday as a surge in German long-dated yields sparked a rally in the common currency, a move that also pushed local bond yields higher. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves inversely to its price, rose 5-1/2 basis points to 2.638 pct, the yield on the long-term 30-year note surged 6 basis points to 3.364 pct and the yield on short-term 2-year climbed over 2 basis points to 1.968 pct.
January 18 16:00 UTC Released
USEIA Weekly Heatoil Stock
January 18 16:00 UTC Released
USEIA Weekly Crude Runs
January 18 21:30 UTC 217217m
January 19 07:00 UTC 787787m
DEProducer Prices MM
January 19 07:00 UTC 787787m
DEProducer Prices YY
January 19 08:00 UTC 847847m
HUGross Wages YY
January 19 09:00 UTC 907907m
EZCurrent Account NSA,EUR
35.9 Bln EUR
January 19 09:00 UTC 907907m
EZCurrent Account SA, EUR
30.8 Bln EUR
January 19 09:30 UTC 937937m
GBRetail Sales MM
January 19 09:30 UTC 937937m