Market Roundup
- SF Fed Williams: Fed shouldn't be too patient on hiking rates, early-gradual hikes preferred over sharp hikes later, waiting too long risks overshooting inflation, sharp hikes risks destabilizing markets, damaging recovery, eyes maximum employment by year-end, inflation "normal" in two years.
- Moody's: NZ economic growth supports AAA rating.
- China's Finance Minister: China has little need to issue yuan-denominated govt debt overseas; Fiscal policy to help avoid sharp growth slowdown.
- Japan end-Feb FX reserves $1.251 trln, end-Jan $1.261 trln, -$9.991 bln.
- Foreign CB US debt holdings -$12.578 bln to $3.253 trln March 4 week, Treasury holdings -$14.543 bln to $2.925 trln, agencies -$1.870 bln to $284.775 bln.
- Australia Feb PCI 43.9, -2.0 points from January, new orders off 6.9 points.
Economic Data Ahead
- (0000 ET/0500 GMT) Japan Jan leading, coincident indicator indices; previous 1.50, 1.50.
- (0200 ET/0700 GMT) Germany Jan industrial output, +0.5% m/m consensus; previous +0.1%.
- (0245 ET/0745 GMT) France Jan trade balance, E3 bln deficit consensus; previous E3.4 bln deficit.
- (0245 ET/0745 GMT) France Jan budget balance; previous E85.6 bln deficit.
- (0300 ET/0800 GMT) Spain Jan industrial output, -0.3% y/y consensus; previous -0.9% y/y.
- (0315 ET/0815 GMT) Switzerland Feb CPI, unch m/m, -0.6% y/y consensus; previous -0.4%, -0.5%.
- (0400 ET/0900 GMT) Italy Jan PPI; previous -0.7% m/m, -1.8% y/y.
- (0400 ET/0900 GMT) Norway Jan manufacturing output, -0.5% m/m consensus; previous +1.3%.
- (0500 ET/1000 GMT) Eurozone Q4 GDP revised, +0.3% q/q, +0.9% y/y consensus; prelim +0.3%, +0.9%.
- (0830 ET/1330 GMT) US Feb non-farm payrolls, +240k consensus; previous +257k.
- (0830 ET/1330 GMT) US Feb unemployment, 5.6% consensus; previous 5.7%.
- (0830 ET/1330 GMT) US Feb average earnings, +0.2% m/m consensus; previous +0.5%.
- (0830 ET/1330 GMT) US Jan international trade balance, $41.7 bln deficit consensus; previous $46.6 bln def.
- (1500 ET/2000 GMT) US Jan consumer credit, $14.75 bln consensus; previous $14.75 bln.
Key Events Ahead
- N/A Riksbank Gov Ingves in Stockholm CBPS/SIFR panel discussion.
- N/A UK DMO GBP2/2/2 bln 1/3/6-month treasury bill auctions.
- (1330 ET/1830 GMT) Dallas Fed Fisher speech at Dallas luncheon.
FX Recap
EUR/USD slid below 1.1000 levels, and now trades around 1.1029. It is likely to test 1.0500 levels, a trough seen in March 2003. The pair is likely to find support at 1.0970 levels, below which the losses could b extended to 1.0796 levels. On the other hand, resistance is located at 1.1185, and a break above would expose the 1.1276-1318 area.
USD/JPY moved back above 120 levels in the mid-Asian trading, as the US dollar remains underpinned ahead of the employment report, to be released later today. Currently it trades around 119.98. On the topside, immediate resistance is seen at 120.19 levels and above which gains could be extended to 120.41 levels. On the flipside, support is seen at 119.93 levels and further below at 119.63 levels.
AUD/USD hovered near 0.7800 levels in the Asian trading hours, and moving closer towards new session highs of 0.7835 levels seen post GDP data. Traders remain wary ahead of the US employment data. Stabilizing oil, gold and copper prices continues to lend support to the pair. On the topside, resistance is seen at 0.7843 levels, and then at 0.7867 levels. On the downside, support is located at 0.7750, below which losses could be extended to 0.7721 levels.
NZD/USD looks weak and is likely to move south. It is currently trading at 0.7493 levels. On the downside, pair is likely to find support at 0.7446 38.2% Fib Feb/Mar rally and alternatively, resistance at 23.6% Fib of same at 0.7510 levels.
