Market Roundup
•UK GDP (QoQ) (Q1) 0.6%, 0.4% forecast, -0.3% previous
•UK Industrial Production (MoM) 0.2%, -0.5% forecast, 1.1% previous
•UK GDP (YoY) (Q1) 0.2%, 0.0% forecast,-0.2% previous
•UK Mar Manufacturing Production (MoM) 0.3%, -0.5% forecast, 1.2% previous
•UK Business Investment (QoQ) (Q1) 0.9%, 1.9% forecast, 1.4% previous
•UK Mar Construction Output (MoM) -0.4%, 0.8% forecast, -1.9% previous
•UK Mar Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change 0.6%, 0.4% forecast, 0.2% previous
•UK Mar U.K. Construction Output (YoY) -2.2%, -1.2% forecast, -2.0% previous
•UK Mar GDP (MoM) 0.4%, 0.1% forecast, 0.1% previous
•UK Mar GDP (YoY) 0.7%, 0.3% forecast, -0.2% previous
•UK Mar Trade Balance -13.97B ,-14.50B forecast, -14.21B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 Canada Apr Participation Rate 65.3% previous
•12:30 Canada Apr Unemployment Rate 6.2% forecast,6.1% previous
•12:30 Canada Apr Part Time Employment Change -1.6K previous
•12:30 Canada Apr Full Employment Change -0.7K previous
•12:30 Canada Apr Employment Change 20.9K forecast,-2.2K previous
•12:30 Canada Apr Avg hourly wages Permanent employee 5.0% previous
•14:00 US May Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations 3.2% previous
•14:00 US May Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations 3.0% previous
•14:00 US May Michigan Consumer Sentiment 76.0 forecast,77.2 previous
•14:00 US Michigan Consumer Expectations 76.0 previous
•14:00 US May Michigan Current Conditions 79.0 previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 499 previous
•17:00 U.S. U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 605 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•16:45 US Fed Goolsbee Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro remained relatively stable against the dollar as speculation around potential Fed rate cuts left investors on the edge. U.S. data showed that weekly jobless claims rose more than expected last week, adding to signs that the country's labour market was weakening and the Federal Reserve was likely to cut rates this year. Traders will closely monitor next week's release of the U.S. producer price index and consumer price index for April to see if inflation continues its descent toward the Fed's 2% target. The euro stood at $1.0783 , almost flat after a 0.3% gain overnight Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0810(23.6% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0826(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0732 (38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0671(50% fib).
GBP/USD: The pound rose on Friday after data showed the British economy beat expectations in the first quarter of the year, growing 0.6% and leaving behind 2023's mild recession. The Office for National Statistics data showed that Britain's economic output grew by a stronger-than-expected 0.6% in the January-to-March period, compared with the previous quarter. A poll of economists had pointed to a 0.4% expansion. The Bank of England on Thursday held interest rates at a 16-year high of 5.25% but noted that inflation was moving in the right direction, while a deputy governor voted for a rate cut, both signs that borrowing costs could well start to fall in the second or third quarters. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2540 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2597(23.6 % fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2486 (50% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2445 ( 61.8% fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar steadied against the Swiss franc on Friday after softer U.S. jobs data gave investors confidence that interest rates will start to decline this year. Thursday's weekly jobless data followed last week's report that showed U.S. job growth slowed more than expected in April and the increase in annual wages fell below 4.0% for the first time in nearly three years.Markets will be closely watching April U.S. producer price index and the consumer price index out next week for signs that inflation has resumed its downward trend towards the Federal Reserve's 2% target rate. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9124(23.6% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9178 ( Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9056(38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9002(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar strengthened on Friday as traders continued to test the resolve of Japanese authorities to support the currency. Market players estimate Tokyo spent some $60 billion last week to bring the yen back to its lowest since 1990 at around 160. Japan's Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki repeated his line on the government's intent to intervene if needed, at a regular post-cabinet meeting news conference on Friday. Against the yen, the dollar was trading at 155.73 yen , up 0.17% . Strong resistance can be seen at 156.29 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 157.00(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 154.38(38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 152.86(50% fib).
Equities Recap
The pan-European STOXX 600 climbed almost 1% on Friday to an all-time high, with Germany's benchmark also touching a new record.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last up by 0.77 percent, Germany's Dax was last up by 0.65 percent, France’s CAC was last up by 0.69 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices strengthened on Friday and were on track for their best week since early April, as weak U.S. employment figures fuelled bets of interest rates cuts by the Federal Reserve this year.
Spot gold gained 1.1% to $2,372.46 per ounce by 1203 GMT, hitting its highest in more than two weeks. Prices have risen over 3% so far in the week.U.S. gold futures jumped 1.7% to $2,379.30.
Global benchmark Brent hovered above $84 a barrel on Friday after data this week signalled growing demand in the U.S. and China, the world's two largest crude users, while festering conflict in the Middle East added support.
Brent futures were up 50 cents to $84.38 a barrel at 1130 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 57 cents to $79.83.
