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The U.S. dollar remained steady on Friday, poised for a modest weekly gain as investors awaited delayed inflation data unlikely to alter expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut next week.
The dollar index hovered at 98.92, up 0.37% for the week, while the euro traded at $1.1619 and the British pound at $1.3331. The Japanese yen stood flat at 152.58 per dollar after weakening earlier, even as Japan’s core inflation stayed above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target—fueling speculation of a possible rate hike in the near term.
Markets were subdued ahead of key central bank meetings in Japan and the U.S., as well as a highly anticipated meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea next week. The discussion has raised hopes for progress in resolving the U.S.-China trade dispute, though analysts remain cautious.
Joseph Capurso, head of international economics at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, noted that “the best outcome is another trade truce,” adding that market expectations for a breakthrough remain low.
Investors are focused on the September U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), expected to show a 0.4% monthly rise in the headline number and 0.3% in the core figure. The Bureau of Labor Statistics confirmed it would release the report despite the ongoing government shutdown to assist with Social Security adjustments.
Analysts believe the data will not derail the Fed’s plan to cut rates by 25 basis points next week, with traders also pricing in another cut in December.
Meanwhile, oil prices surged after new U.S. sanctions on Russian energy giants Rosneft and Lukoil, following similar British measures. The move pressured currencies of oil-importing nations, including Japan.
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s upcoming economic stimulus package—expected to exceed last year’s $92 billion—could delay a Bank of Japan rate hike as policymakers seek alignment between fiscal and monetary strategies.
