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Bitcoin (BTC) price could experience significant volatility this week as investors prepare for the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on October 14 and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech on October 15. Despite increasing whale accumulation, persistent selling pressure continues to limit Bitcoin’s recovery.
BTC was trading at approximately $83,679 at the time of writing, gaining 0.8% over the previous 24 hours.
Market expectations suggest September headline inflation could rise to 3.7% year-over-year, compared with 3.4% in August. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, is projected to increase from 2.4% to 2.5%.
Rising oil prices have contributed to inflation concerns, despite President Donald Trump indicating that the United States would avoid further strikes against Iran before the midterm elections.
A stronger-than-expected CPI reading could pressure Bitcoin prices by increasing expectations of additional Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. CoinGape prediction market data currently indicates a 55% probability of another rate increase in 2026.
Investors will also closely monitor Warsh’s upcoming speech in Thailand for signals regarding inflation and potential monetary policy decisions at the October and December Federal Open Market Committee meetings.
Meanwhile, on-chain indicators reveal mixed signals for Bitcoin’s near-term outlook.
According to CoinGlass, Bitcoin’s weighted funding rate increased from -0.0015% to 0.0043%, suggesting improving sentiment among derivatives traders.
CryptoQuant data also indicates that Bitcoin whale holdings have climbed above 3.02 million BTC, while the whale share of Binance inflows declined from 0.7 to 0.39.
CryptoQuant analyst Sharif highlighted that Bitcoin’s seven-day average supply in loss has fallen below 30%, a development historically associated with improving long-term market conditions.
However, Bitcoin’s Apparent Demand remains negative at -23,000 BTC, indicating that buying activity has yet to overcome broader selling pressure.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin continues trading above crucial support near $81,062. Positive MACD readings and Awesome Oscillator signals suggest bullish momentum remains intact.
A sustained breakout above $87,400 could strengthen Bitcoin’s recovery and confirm renewed upward momentum.
Conversely, losing the $81,000 support level could trigger further declines toward $76,000, corresponding to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
With US inflation data and Federal Reserve commentary approaching, Bitcoin traders remain focused on whether stronger whale accumulation can offset weakening market demand.
