Bearish Bias Confirmed: EUR/USD Weakens on US Retail Surge

EUR/USD  trades weakly after upbeat US retail sales. It hit an intraday low of 1.15564 and is currently trading around 1.15845. Overall trend remains bearish as long as resistance 1.1660 holds.

US retail sales jumped 0. 6% month-over-month to $720. 1 billion in June 2025, therefore exceeding market expectations and reversing losses from the two preceding months. With a 3. 9% year-over-year rise, this amazing rebound points to strong consumer expenditure—a 0. 5% increase even without automotive sales and in the GDP-calculating control group. Although different industries saw growth—mostly in those including motor vehicles, building supplies, and retail stores—furniture and electronics saw a little dip, and gasoline sales stayed flat. Though part of the rise might be ascribed to higher prices brought on by levies, this excellent performance points to a robust US economy and might affect Federal Reserve interest rate policy.

The pair is holding below the 55 EMA, above the 200 EMA, and the 365 EMA in the 4-hour chart. Near-term resistance is seen at 1.1660, a break above this may push the pair to targets of  1.1720/1.1765/1.1800/1.1835/1.19090/1.1956/1.200.  Major bullish momentum is likely only if prices can break above the 1.200 targets, 1.2100. On the downside, support is seen at 1.1550; any violation below will drag the pair to 1.150/1.1435.

Market Indicators and Trading Strategy

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)-  Bearish

Average Directional Movement Index (ADX) - Neutral

 It is good to sell on rallies around 1.1618-20 with a stop-loss at 1.1665 for a target price of 1.1500.