Market Roundup
• Japan Foreign Investments in Japanese Stocks: 2,959.6B, -4,448.1B previous
• Japan Foreign Bonds Buying: -2,462.4B, -945.5B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 08:00 Spanish Industrial Production (YoY) (Feb): 1.5%forecast, 0.3% previous
•10:00 Greek Industrial Production (YoY) (Feb): 5.3% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged higher against dollar on Thursday as investors anxiously assessed whether a fragile two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran would hold.The five-week war has shaken investor confidence, triggering the largest disruption to global oil and gas supplies on record.The uneasy truce leaves Iran with greater leverage over shipping through the vital strait than before the conflict, analysts say, after President Donald Trump backed off from his threats to attack Iran's civilian infrastructure. The U.S. is set to release February personal spending and the PCE deflator on Thursday. Despite improved sentiment following the ceasefire agreement. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1677(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1717(April 8thhigh).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1565(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1546(SMA 20).
GBP/USD: The British pound rose on Thursday as investors remained cautious about the fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire. The deal appeared to be on thin ice, as Israel continued its parallel war against the Iran-aligned militia Hezbollah in Lebanon, while Tehran accused both Israel and the U.S. of violating the agreement and said that proceeding with peace talks would be "unreasonable."On Wednesday, Israel pounded Lebanon with its heaviest strikes yet, killing hundreds of people and drawing a threat of retaliation from Iran. On the data front, U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures data for February is due at 1230 GMT, and March consumer price data on Friday could give further clues on the Fed's policy path. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3421(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.35465(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3315(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3180(23.6%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar eased on Thursday as the initial optimism surrounding U.S.–Iran peace talks has begun to fader.The ceasefire appears fragile, with Iran citing multiple violations of the agreement with the U.S., keeping the market on edge.This geopolitical uncertainty is limiting risk appetite and weighing on the AUD.Technical potential exists for a rally toward 0.7126, but lingering geopolitical risks and possible USD strength from U.S. economic data keep the pair range-bound for now.Market attention is on Today’s U.S. releases, including February Core PCE (expected +0.4% m/m) and Q4 GDP (expected +0.7% q/q). Stronger-than-expected prints could bolster the USD. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7084 (Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7137(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.7034(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6976(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged higher on Thursday as yen gave back some of the previous day’s gains as investors assessed the stability of a fragile two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran. Analysts say the truce has boosted Iran’s influence over shipping through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, following President Donald Trump’s decision to step back from threats against Iran’s civilian infrastructure. The five-week conflict has rattled investor confidence, causing the largest disruption to global oil and gas supplies on record.. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda is expected to appear in the parliament from 0415 GMT on Thursday. On the data front, the U.S. is set to release February personal spending and the PCE deflator on Thursday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 159.97(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 158.04(Lower BB) a break below could take the pair towards 157.68(50%fib).
Equities Recap
Asian share markets traded cautiously on Thursday as signs of strain emerged in the fragile Gulf truce, pushing oil prices higher and signaling to investors that inflationary pressures could persist for some time.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down by 0.57% , Hang Seng was down at 0.39%, China A50 was down at 0.52 %
Commodities Recap
Gold prices were mostly steady on Thursday as investors stayed cautious about the fragile U.S.–Iran ceasefire, with attention also focused on a key U.S. inflation report later in the day that could offer clues on future interest rate policy
Spot gold inched 0.1% higher to $4,721.51 per ounce, as of 0523 GMT. U.S. gold futures GCcv1 for June delivery fell 0.7% to $4,744.90.
Oil prices rose on Thursday as doubts over a fragile two-week Middle East ceasefire raised concerns that energy flows through the crucial Strait of Hormuz will remain restricted.
Brent crude futures were up $1.96, or 2.07%, at $96.71 a barrel at 0325 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $2.60, or 2.75%, to $97.01 a barrel.
