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Are lower oil prices good or bad?

In principle, a lower oil price should be positive for the world economy. The transfer of income from producers to consumers, who are more likely to spend on other goods and services, should boost global demand. At worst, the impact might be expected to be neutral, with the winners offsetting the losers. In practice, though, the net impact of the recent slump in oil prices appears to have been negative or at least perceived as such in financial markets.

There are a number of factors at play here. First, the speed and extent of the slump has itself added to the uncertainty about the global economy. Rightly or (more probably) wrongly, the fall has been interpreted as evidence of a collapse in demand and fuelled fears about a hard landing in China in particular.

Second, the costs to producers have been proportionately much larger (relative to their incomes) than the benefits to consumers. This concentration of losses relative to the more diffuse benefits is one reason why producers appear to have cut their spending more quickly and by a larger amount than consumers have increased theirs.

This asymmetry has compounded the negative impacts on financial markets. Energy companies may now only account, for example, for a small share of the US junk bond market, but the fear is that there will be widespread defaults throughout this sector, rippling through the financial system as a whole. Similarly, the impact on the 20% or so of the UK FTSE 100 accounted for by commodity producers is far more visible than the potential benefits to the remaining 80% who are not.

Pressure on oil producers to sell assets accumulated in Sovereign Wealth Funds has also soured the mood, even though this selling might actually boost the global economy if the proceeds are used to support local spending.

The additional downward pressure on headline inflation from lower energy costs has revived fears that vulnerable economies may slip into a more damaging period of deflation.

However, this analysis does also allow us to draw some more positive conclusions. Stabilisation in oil prices - even at a low level - should at least ease some of the associated uncertainty about the health of the global economy. The downward pressure on headline inflation should unwind too.

"Many of the negatives are also about timing. Producers have generally been quicker to adjust their spending, but eventually this should be outweighed by increases in spending by consumers on other goods and services. On balance, then we continue to expect an extended period of lower oil prices to boost global growth over the next few years, even if this process may take longer than we had anticipated", says Capital Economics.

 

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