Menu

Search

  |   Commentary

Menu

  |   Commentary

Search

Why OPEC-Russia cooperation not enough to push oil price higher for long?

There are little to speculate bullish from recent indication that Russia's second largest oil producer Lukoil might be willing to cooperate with OPEC in production if political will present in Moscow.

There are several unanswered questions 

  • Rosneft is the largest Russian oil producer and is controlled by State. So cooperation by Lukoil alone isn't enough. Even if Russia choose to cut production and push priced higher, it might get offset by appreciation in Ruble. Moreover, Saudi Arabia and Russia stand as rivals in Middle East power struggle. Russia in support of Iran and Syria government, whereas Saudis are politically opposed to both.
  • War needs money. So it is not clear, how willing Saudi Arabia will be to cut production in a time, when Iran is sure to increase production by half a million barrels.

Even if any extraordinary circumstance, OPEC and Russia join force to cut output, the boost to price could only be temporary.

The reason for that is Shale revolution

  • Against all hope, even after 70% decline in price, US oil production hasn't declined by much. In fact, US is producing more than 9 million barrels/day of commercial crude.
     
  • Even if small producers' are going bankrupt, larger companies are coming to the picture acquiring the assets, who are less prone to bankruptcy.
     
  • Shale oil production cost was somewhere around $70/barrel in 2014 but since oil price drop improved efficiency has pushed cost lower by 40%. With bigger companies coming to the shale sector efficiency likely to improve further.
     
  • Even if current oil price lower than shale production cost, ease of reopening a well, makes them swing producers, which could keep price checked on the upside.

Without co-ordination from shale producers, OPEC-Russia cooperation can't fuel price rise for long.

Brent is currently trading at $29.7/barrel, at 10 cents premium

  • Market Data
Close

Welcome to EconoTimes

Sign up for daily updates for the most important
stories unfolding in the global economy.