Market Roundup
•US Manufacturing PMI jumps 2.5 points to 50.3 in March
•Canada Mar Manufacturing PMI 49.8,49.7 previous
•US Mar Manufacturing PMI 51.9, 52.5 forecast,52.2 previous
•US Feb Construction Spending (MoM) -0.3%,0.7% forecast,-0.2% previous
•US Mar ISM Manufacturing PMI 50.3,48.5 forecast,47.8 previous
•US Mar ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index 51.4, 49.2 previous
•US Mar ISM Manufacturing Prices 55.8, 53.3 forecast,52.5 previous
•1US Mar ISM Manufacturing Employment 47.4, 45.9 previous
• US 6-Month Bill Auction 5.230%, 5.230% previous
• US 3-Month Bill Auction 5.125%, 5.230% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•03:35 Japan 10-Year JGB Auction 0.718% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Data Ahead
EUR/USD: The euro slipped lower on Monday as dollar rose after stronger-than-expected US manufacturing data.U.S. manufacturing grew for the first time in 1-1/2 years in March as production rebounded sharply and new orders increased, but employment at factories remained subdued amid "sizable layoff activity" and prices for inputs pushed higher. The ISM said its manufacturing PMI increased to 50.3 last month, the highest and first reading above 50 since September 2022, from 47.8 in February. The rebound ended 16 straight months of contraction in manufacturing, which accounts for 10.4% of the economy. That was the longest such stretch since the August 2000-January 2002 period. A PMI reading above 50 indicates growth in the manufacturing sector. Economists polled had forecast the PMI would rise to 48.4. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0809(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0832 (38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0775(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0736(Feb 16th low).
GBP/USD: The pound declined on Monday as dollar firmed after data showed U.S. manufacturing sector grew in March for the first time since September 2022. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said U.S. manufacturing production rebounded and new orders increased, although factory employment remained subdued and prices for inputs rose. The rebound ended 16 straight months of contraction in manufacturing, which accounts for 10.4% of the economy. That was the longest period of shrinking since August 2000 to January 2002. Markets on Monday lowered their bets on the Federal Reserve cutting rates in June, after boosting the odds on Friday's news of easing U.S. prices, the CME FedWatch tool showed. Sterling was last at $1.25440, down 0.63% on the day. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2612(Feb 15th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2648(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2540 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2490(Lower BB).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar weakened against its U.S. counterpart on Monday as the greenback notched broad-based gains and a quarterly business survey from the Bank of Canada left the door open to interest rate cuts over the coming months. Fewer firms are planning for a recession in the coming 12 months but they expect demand to stay subdued over the next year, the BoC's Business Outlook Survey for the first quarter found. Investors expect the BoC to begin easing in June or July.Separate data showed that Canadian manufacturing activity moved closer in March to ending a lengthy period of contraction. The Canadian dollar was trading 0.3% lower at 1.3580 per U.S. dollar , after trading in a range of 1.3516 to 1.3586. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3581 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3618(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3581 (38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3496(50% fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar was little changed against yen on Monday as traders were on edge on the threat of intervention by Bank of Japan. Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said on Monday he would not rule out options against excessive currency movement and would respond appropriately, reiterating his warning on rapid yen moves. The spotlight in the currency market has been on the yen as its move toward levels last seen in 1990 revives the threat of intervention by Japanese authorities. The yen touched a 34-year low against the dollar of 151.975 on Wednesday and was last at 151.395 per dollar on Monday. Japan intervened in the currency market in 2022, first in September and again in October, as the yen slid toward a 32-year low of 152 to the dollar. Strong resistance can be seen at 151.93 (23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 152.39(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 150.85(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 150.12(50%fib)
Equities Recap
European stock market was closed on account of Easter Monday.
The Dow and S&P 500 edged lower on Monday, dragged down by investor worries over the timing of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve after stronger-than-expected manufacturing data pushed Treasury yields higher.
Dow Jones closed down by 0.60 percent, S&P 500 closed down 0.20 percent, Nasdaq closed up by 0.11 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices pared gains on Monday as the dollar and bond yields rose, after the bullion surged to a fresh record high on growing expectation that the U.S. Federal Reserve could deliver the first interest rate cut in June.
Spot gold was up 0.3% at $2,238.18 per ounce as of 1:50 p.m. EDT (1750 GMT) after hitting an all-time high of $2,265.49 earlier in the session.U.S. gold futures settled 0.9% higher at $2,236.5.
Crude prices edged up about 1% on Monday with U.S. futures closing at a five-month high, on expectations that economic growth in the U.S. and China will boost demand, while supplies tighten on OPEC+ output cuts and attacks on Russian refineries.
Brent futures for June delivery settled at $87.42 a barrel on Monday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained 54 cents, or 0.7%, to settle at $83.71, their highest close since Oct. 27.
