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Americas Roundup: Dollar dips investors take profits after dollar's best week of 2017, Gold rises, Wall Street slips, Brent oil ends above $60 on expected OPEC cut extension-October 31st 2017


Market Roundup

• US Sep Personal Consumption real m/m, 0.6%, -0.1% previous.

• US Sep Personal Income m/m, 0.4%, 0.4% forecast, 0.2% previous.

• US Sep Consumption, Adjusted m/m, 1.0%, 0.8% forecast, 0.1% previous.

• US Sep Core PCE Price Index m/m, 0.1%, 0.1% forecast, 0.1% previous.

• US Sep Core PCE Price Index y/y, 1.3%, 1.3% previous.

• US Oct Dallas Fed Mfg Business Index, 27.60, 21.30 previous.

• Trump likely to pick Fed's Powell to lead central bank –source.

• Two ex-Trump aides charged in Russia probe, 3rd pleads guilty.

• Canada foreign minister says NAFTA talks feature 'troubling proposals'.

• Spain's direct rule takes hold in Catalonia as secessionists accept elections.

• Eurozone sentiment keeps surging, unaffected by Catalan crisis.

• Eurozone banks can cope with low rates for years, ECB paper says.

• Soft German inflation backs up ECB slow tapering.

• UK mortgage approvals edge lower, consumer lending robust.

• Brent oil holds above $60 on expected output cut extension.

Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)

• 23:30 Japan Sep Household spending m/m, 0.1% forecast, 0.2% previous

• 23:30 Japan Sep Household spending y/y, 0.7% forecast, 0.6% previous

• 23.30 Japan Sep Jobs/Applicants Ratio, 1.53 forecast, 1.52 previous

• 23.30 Japan Sep Unemployment Rate, 2.8% forecast, 2.8% previous

• 23.30 Japan Sep Industrial Output prelim m/m, -1.5% forecast, 2.0% previous

• 00:00 Australia Sep HIA New Home Sales m/m, 9.1% previous

• 00:00 New Zealand Oct NBNZ Business Outlook, 0.0% previous

• 00:30 Australia Sep Housing Credit, 0.5% previous

• 01:00 China Oct NBS Non-mfg PMI, 55.40 previous

• 01:00 China Oct NBS Manufacturing PMI, 52.0 forecast, 52.4 previous

Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT)

• N/A Bank of Japan holds monetary policy meeting

• N/A Federal Reserve's FOMC starts its two-day meeting on interest rates

• 19:30 Bank of Canada Gov Poloz speaks in Ottawa

Currency Summaries

EUR/USD is likely to find support at 1.1573 levels and currently trading at 1.1654 levels. The pair has made session high at 1.1656 and hit lows at 1.1601 levels. The euro edged higher against the greenback on Monday as greenback fell after posting its biggest weekly rise this year as investors took profit and grew cautious amid news that President Donald Trump's former campaign manager faces charges of conspiracy against the United States. The caution was underscored by a spate of U.S. economic reports due to be released this week and ahead of a meeting of the Federal Reserve's policymakers Tuesday and Wednesday. Currency markets had little reaction to U.S. personal consumption data that showed consumer spending had grown at its fastest pace since 2009. Friday’s release of third-quarter economic growth data showed the economy expanded 3.0 percent, beating forecasts. It was the first time since 2014 that the U.S. economy has experienced growth of 3 percent or more for two quarters in a row. U.S. jobs data and Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data are due this week. The dollar index fell 0.35 percent, with the euro up 0.41 percent to $1.1654.

GBP/USD is supported in the range of 1.3126 levels and currently trading at 1.3210 levels. It reached session high at 1.3215 and dropped to session low at 1.3153 levels. Sterling firmed against the dollar on Monday as traders geared up for a Bank of England policy meeting later in the week that they expect will produce the first increase in interest rates in more than a decade. Most economists polled expect the central bank to raise rates on Nov. 2, lifting the official cost of borrowing to 0.5 percent after last year's 25-basis-point cut in the aftermath of the vote for Brexit. While that hike is largely priced in, traders will be watching closely for what members of the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) say about future interest rate rises, and they will also be looking carefully at updated forecasts for growth and inflation. Sterling posted its best week in six against a euro hit by worries over political uncertainty in Spain last week, and traded close to a one-month high on Monday, flat at 88.41 pence per euro. It was up 0.65 percent against dollar at $1.3209.

USD/CAD is supported at 1.2800 levels and is trading at 1.2826 levels. It has made session high at 1.2857 and lows at 1.2815 levels. The Canadian dollar weakened against its U.S. counterpart on Monday, but traded in a narrow range as investors braced for top-tier domestic data later in the week. Canadian data on Tuesday is expected to show that the economy grew by just 0.1 percent in August, which would support expectations for slower growth in the third quarter after a strong first half of the year. Canada's employment report for October and the trade report for September are due on Friday. The Canadian dollar has been the weakest performer of the G10 currencies since the Bank of Canada last raised rates in September, and some strategists predict more declines in value after the central bank on Wednesday dialed back expectations for more hikes this year. The central bank also hiked in July, which was the first in nearly seven years. Its policy rate sits at 1 percent. The Canadian dollar was trading at C$1.2818 to the greenback, down 0.16 percent. The currency traded in a range of C$1.2812 to C$1.2859.

AUD/USD is supported around 0.7622 levels and currently trading at 0.7674 levels. It hit session high at 0.7680 and made session lows at 0.7654 levels. The Australian dollar held near recent lows against US dollar on Monday, as a run of upbeat U.S. economic news underlined the diverging outlook for interest rates between them and their U.S. peer. The Aussie was holding at $0.7675, having dived as deep as $0.7625 on Friday to bring its losses for the month so far to almost 2 percent. Analysts warned a rally above chart resistance at $0.7720/7733 was needed to turn the bear trend. The latest lunge lower came after a surprisingly strong reading on U.S. economic growth supported expectations for a December rate hike from the Federal Reserve. In contrast, disappointingly soft figures on Australian inflation out last week had only reinforced the lack of any trigger for a tightening - likely for many months to come. Interest rate futures are not fully priced for a hike in the 1.5 percent cash rate until February 2019, out from August 2018 just a few weeks ago. As a result, the premium offered by Australian two-year government debt U.S. bonds has shrunk to just 26 basis points, near the smallest since early 2001.

Equities Recap

Spanish equities rebounded on Monday, reassured by weekend demonstrations for a unified Spain and a poll lead for parties opposed to Catalan independence.

UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down 0.3 percent, FTSEurofirst 300 ended the day up by 0.07 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.1 percent, and France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.1 percent.

Wall Street pulled back from record-high territory on Monday, weighed down by a drop in Merck shares, as investors assessed President Donald Trump's plan for corporate tax cuts.

Dow Jones closed down by 0.37 percent, S&P 500 ended down 0.32 percent, Nasdaq finished the day down by 0.03 percent.

Treasuries Recap 

U.S. Treasury yields fell on Monday as news reports indicated that U.S. President Donald Trump is likely to appoint Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell, who is viewed as more dovish than other contenders, as head of the Federal Reserve.

Benchmark 10-year notes were last up 15/32 in price to yield 2.37 percent, down from 2.43 percent on Friday.

Commodities Recap

Gold rose on Monday ahead of a series of central bank meetings and U.S. President Donald Trump's expected announcement of the next Federal Reserve chair, and amid a slightly weaker U.S. dollar.

Spot gold was up 0.3 percent at $1,275.76 an ounce by 2:52 p.m. EDT (1852 GMT), little changed from its late Friday level but well off that session's three-week low of $1,263.35. U.S. gold futures for December delivery settled up $5.90, or 0.5 percent, at $1,277.70 per ounce.

Brent oil closed on Monday at its highest level since July 2015 and U.S. crude closed at a peak not seen since February on expectations OPEC-led production cuts would be extended beyond March, although such gains are likely to spur more U.S. production.

Brent crude futures settled at $60.90 a barrel, up 46 cents. Brent has gained 9.5 percent in the last 16 trading days.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures settled up 25 cents at $54.15 a barrel, highest since Feb. 23, 2017. The U.S. contract has been strong of late as well, gaining 10 percent in the last 16 trading days.

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2017-11-23 16:31:32
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2017-11-23 16:30:58
0m

November 23 19:00 UTC Released

AREconomic Activity YY*

Actual

955 %

Forecast

-800 %

Previous

1755 %

November 23 19:00 UTC Released

ARRich Fed Mfg Shipments*

Actual

3.8 %

Forecast

4.4 %

Previous

-0.6000 %

November 23 21:00 UTC 4242m

KRConsumer Sentiment Ind*

Actual

Forecast

Previous

109 Bln USD

November 23 23:50 UTC 212212m

JPForeign Bond Investment

Actual

Forecast

Previous

-105 Bln JPY

November 23 23:50 UTC 212212m

JPForeign Invest JP Stock

Actual

Forecast

Previous

182.4 Bln JPY

November 24 00:30 UTC 252252m

JPNikkei Mfg PMI Flash

Actual

Forecast

Previous

52.8 bln $

November 24 09:00 UTC 762762m

DEIfo Business Climate*

Actual

Forecast

116.6 %

Previous

116.7 %

November 24 09:00 UTC 762762m

DEIfo Current Conditions*

Actual

Forecast

125 %

Previous

124.8 %

November 24 09:00 UTC 762762m

DEIfo Expectations*

Actual

Forecast

108.9 %

Previous

109.1 %

November 24 09:00 UTC 762762m

ITIndustrial Orders MM SA

Actual

Forecast

Previous

8.7 %

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