Market Roundup
• US Feb Retail Inventories Ex Auto 1.2%, -0.1% previous
• US Wholesale Inventories (MoM) 0.5%,1.3% previous
• US Feb Goods Trade Balance -86.72B, -84.58B previous
• Brazil Feb Current Account (USD) -2.30B, -2.40B forecast, -7.25B previous
• US Feb Real Personal Consumption (MoM) -1.2%, 3.0% previous
• US Feb PCE Price index (YoY) 1.6, 1.5 previous
• US Feb Personal Spending (MoM) -1.0%, -0.7% forecast, 2.4% previous
• US Feb Core PCE Price Index (MoM) 0.1%,0.1% forecast, 0.3% previous
• US Feb PCE price index (MoM) 0.2%, 0.3% previous
• US Feb Core PCE Price Index (YoY) 1.4%, 1.5% forecast, 1.5% previous
• US Feb Personal Income (MoM) -7.1%, -7.3% forecast, 10.0% previous
• US March Michigan Consumer Sentiment 84.9, 83.6 forecast, 83.0 previous
• US March Michigan Consumer Expectations 79.7, 77.5 previous
• US March Michigan Current Conditions 93.0,91.5 previous
• US March Michigan Inflation Expectations3.1%, 3.1% previous
• US March Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations 2.70%, 2.70% previous
• Canada Jan Budget Balance (YoY) -268.18B,-248.17B previous
• Canada Jan Budget Balance -20.01B ,-16.15B previous
• US Feb Dallas Fed PCE 1.80%, 1.90% previous
Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)
•No data ahead
Looking Ahead - Economic events and other releases (GMT)
•No significant events
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro recovered from losses against dollar on Friday after Germany's Ifo survey data showed an improvement in business morale. German business morale hit its highest level in almost two years in March as rising demand for manufactured goods kept factories in Europe’s largest economy humming through rising coronavirus infections and lockdown restrictions, a survey showed on Friday.The Ifo institute said its business climate index shot up to 96.6, the highest reading since June 2019, from an upwardly revised 92.7 in February. The euro was up 0.25% against the dollar at $1.1792.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1825 (5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1879(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1753 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1700 (Psychological level).
GBP/USD: The pound strengthened against the dollar on Friday, even after European leaders stepped up warnings about limiting vaccine exports, as market participants were generally upbeat about Britain’s vaccine rollout and economic outlook. After a meeting of European leaders on Thursday, EU commission chief Ursula von der Leyen said that AstraZeneca cannot export any more COVID-19 vaccines from Europe until it fulfils its contracts with the EU. Brussels and London sought to cool tension on Wednesday, declaring they were working “to create a win-win situation and expand vaccine supply for all our citizens. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3764 (5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3814 (38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3717 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3668(25th March Low).
USD/CAD :The Canadian dollar strengthened against its U.S. counterpart on Friday as oil and equity markets globally rose, but the currency was on track to lose ground for the second straight week.The price of oil, one of Canada's major exports, rebounded on concerns it could take weeks to dislodge a giant container ship blocking the Suez Canal, which would squeeze supplies of crude and refined products. The Canadian dollar was last trading 0.3% higher at 1.2572 to the greenback. The currency traded in a range of 1.2565 to 1.2612, having touched on Thursday its weakest level in two weeks at 1.2628. For the week, it was on course to decline 0.6% as the U.S. dollar broadly climbed. .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.4014 (5 DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.4170 (Daily high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.4000 (Psychological level), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3835 (21 DMA).
USD/JPY: The dollar rose against the Japanese yen on Friday as dollar was helped by optimism over the state of the U.S. economy and the rollout of coronavirus vaccines. U.S. jobless claims fell to a one-year low last week and President Joe Biden said he will double his vaccination plan after reaching his previous goal of 100 million shots 42 days ahead of schedule, both of which support optimism in the dollar. Against a basket of six major currencies, the dollar stood at 92.846, not far off a four-month high hit a day earlier and on course for a weekly gain of 0.9%.The dollar rose 0.6% to 109.82 against the Japanese yen, its highest since June. Strong resistance can be seen at 109.88 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 110.00 (Psychological level ).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 108.99(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 108.67 (5DMA).
Equities Recap
European stocks rose on Friday, helped by gains in commodity-linked companies as investors balanced worries about surging coronavirus cases with the prospect of a strong U.S. economic recovery.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.99 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.87 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.61 percent.
The S&P 500 and Dow rose in a broad-based advance on Friday with technology, healthcare and financial stocks providing the biggest lift as investors bet on a recovery that is expected to deliver the fastest economic growth since 1984.
Dow Jones closed down by 1.39% percent, S&P 500 closed up by 1.66% percent, Nasdaq settled up by 1.24% percent.
Treasuries Recap
U.S. Treasury yields rose on Friday but held below one-year highs reached last week as investors balanced expectations of faster economic growth and higher inflation against quarterly rebalancing that has boosted near-term demand for bonds.
Benchmark 10-year note yields were last up 5 basis points on the day at 1.660%. The yields fell as low as 1.589% on Wednesday.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices eased on Friday en route for their first weekly decline in three as a stronger dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields offset support from concerns over surging coronavirus cases in Europe.
Spot gold was down 0.1% at $1,724.65 per ounce by 1225 GMT. Bullion is down 1% so far this week. U.S. gold futures were down 0.1% at $1,724 per ounce.
Oil prices rose more than 4% on Friday on worries global supplies of crude and refined products could be disrupted for weeks as workers try to dislodge a giant container ship blocking the Suez Canal.
Brent crude rose $2.62, or 4.2%, to settle at $64.57 a barrel, after dropping 3.8% on Thursday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained $2.41, or 4.1%, to settle at $60.97 a barrel, having tumbled 4.3% a day earlier.
