API reports surplus, while WTI awaits EIA report – calls updated

Crude oil (WTI) is finding support around $43/barrel critical support area, however struggling to break above $48/barrel interim resistance.

WTI price now is in triangular consolidation, suggesting breakout ahead as we move closer to the peak of triangle and price gets squeezed.

Key factors at play in Crude market -

• Crude oil production in US has dropped but remains above 9 million barrels/day. US rig count has fallen for fourth consecutive week.
• OPEC has suggested sharp drop in non-OPEC supply by 1 million barrels by 2017 to 58.2 million barrels /day.
• Goldman Sachs has recently cut its forecast for WTI to $38/barrel in next one month.
• Almost all investment bank sees price to remain low but rise through next year.
• American Petroleum Institute's (API) weekly report showed inventory rose by 4.6 million barrels, first rise in three weeks.
• However lack of investments in the sector make prices vulnerable to supply shocks in future.

Today's report might not trigger massive volatility if crude price keeps trading in range.

Today's inventory report from US Energy Information Administration (EIA), to be released at 14:30 GMT.

Trade idea -

• Crude is trapped under the force of both Bulls and Bears. While Bulls are trying to push prices close to our previous target of $53/barrel. Bears are looking to break to 2008/09 crisis low around $35/barrel.
• $43/barrel are remains key, which bulls have not given up on yet. $50/barrel area pose as key psychological resistance.

WTI is currently trading at $45.1/barrel and Brent at $3/barrel premium.