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FxWirePro: “Shifting the sentiments and paving the way for Fed’s March hikes”, OTC hedging factors in dollar bets

Mar 09, 2017 04:57 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views Central Banks

In just a week, markets went from doubting a March rate increase toviewing oneas a sure bet. The central banks top brass engineered the changeby speaking in favor of ahike, culminating in Fed Chair Janet Yellens...

FX Hedging Strategy Series

FxWirePro: Cable gets stuck in dreadful interest rate and geopolitical regime – Z-spread signals GBP overvaluation

Mar 08, 2017 12:17 pm UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

Cable is the most over-valued G10 currency versus the dollar (refer above chart). Indeed, cable is more expensive versus 2Y rate spreads than at any point in the last five years. Fair-value currently languishes at 1.15,...

FxWirePro: Do Dutch polls really matter? Relative value in CAD/JPY and EUR/JPY ahead of European elections - Gamma spreads to factor in unforeseen risks

Mar 08, 2017 07:38 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

CADJPY screens extremely cheap on our 1M gamma grid while EURJPY is materially expensive (refer above chart). CADJPY EURJPY 1M ATM spreads is nearly flat (zero) on mids, whereas the close-to-close realized vol spread...

FxWirePro: EUR/JPY low IV regime - “Strangle writings” for speculators, “Vol spreads” for laggards and “Put Ratio Back Spreads” for hedgers

Mar 08, 2017 06:50 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

The EURJPY volatility surface is currently offering very attractive opportunities, as ATM volatility is rich and 6m/1y skews are excessively priced. Here, we recommend a couple of trades taking advantage of both the...

FxWirePro: Fed’s rest of 2017 to drive dollar derivatives baskets on stimulated OIS and UST yields

Mar 07, 2017 13:25 pm UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views Central Banks

Yellen dropped a heavy hint last week that a rate hike was coming on the Ides of March. That too is the day of the Dutch general election, though it remains unlikely that the populist Party for Freedom will secure a...

FxWirePro: EUR/AUD lacklustre IVs imply option writers’ edge; 1m skews indicate bearish risks - Arrest asymmetric political risk via zero-cost ladder

Mar 07, 2017 06:11 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

On the back of political fears pressuring the euro, EURAUD has lost about 750 pips (about 5.12%) since the start of the year and the risk-friendly mood supporting the AUD via metals. But the pair is now testing the 1.37...

FxWirePro: EUR/PLN seems attractive carry among outright trades ahead of European political risks

Mar 06, 2017 11:50 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

In 2016 we recommended a series of defensive trades into the Brexit and US election votes1 because we felt that political risks were underestimated. Going into the French elections we believe it is hard to say that...

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Economy

Malaysia Central Bank Moves to Support Ringgit Amid Foreign Fund Outflows

Malaysias central bank has announced new measures to support the ringgit after the currency weakened more than 4% in June, driven largely by foreign investor caution and expectations of higher U.S. interest rates. Bank...

Bessent Says U.S. Must Strengthen Supply Chains and Economic Security

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Trump administration is focused on strengthening supply chain resilience to protect critical industries from economic disruptions, pandemics, geopolitical conflicts, and...

South Korea Remains MSCI Emerging Market Despite Reform Progress

South Korea will remain classified as an emerging market by MSCI after the global index provider decided not to upgrade the country to developed market status in its latest market accessibility review released on Tuesday....

South Korea’s KOSPI Rebounds as Samsung and SK Hynix Lead Tech Stock Recovery

South Koreas benchmark KOSPI index staged a strong recovery on Wednesday, climbing 3.4% to 8,480.21 points after suffering a sharp sell-off in the previous session. The rebound was driven largely by gains in major...

Australia Inflation Cools in May, But Core CPI Keeps RBA Rate Hike Risks Alive

Australias inflation rate eased more than expected in May, offering signs that price pressures may be gradually cooling and strengthening the case for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to keep interest rates unchanged in...

Politics

US Senate Approves War Powers Resolution Urging Trump to End Iran Military Action

The U.S. Senate has approved a war powers resolution directing President Donald Trump to halt U.S. military involvement in Iran, marking a significant congressional challenge to the administrations foreign policy. The...

Crimea Power Outage After Ukrainian Drone Attack, Russian Authorities Say

Power supplies were disrupted in Sevastopol, the largest city in Russian-annexed Crimea, following what local Russian-installed authorities described as a Ukrainian attack on energy infrastructure. Mikhail Razvozhayev, the...

Cait Conley Wins Democratic Nomination, Sets Up Key House Battle Against Mike Lawler in New York

Cait Conley, a U.S. Army veteran and former national security official, has secured the Democratic nomination to challenge Republican Congressman Mike Lawler in New Yorks highly competitive 17th Congressional District. The...

U.S. Eases Iran Team Travel Restrictions Ahead of Seattle World Cup Match

The United States has relaxed travel restrictions for Irans national soccer team ahead of its upcoming FIFA World Cup match in Seattle, allowing the squad to enter the country two days before kickoff instead of just one...

Peru Election Dispute Deepens as Roberto Sanchez Rejects Runoff Results

Perus presidential election dispute intensified on Tuesday after leftist candidate Roberto Sanchez announced that he would not recognize the outcome of the tightly contested presidential runoff, alleging electoral fraud...

Science

Blue Origin New Glenn Explosion Could Delay Launch Operations Until 2028

Blue Origin is facing a significant setback after a dramatic explosion involving its New Glenn rocket severely damaged a launch pad at Cape Canaveral, Florida. According to NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman, repairs to the...

Blue Origin New Glenn Rocket Explodes During Launch Pad Test, Delaying Space Ambitions

Blue Origin suffered a major setback after its uncrewed New Glenn rocket exploded during a launch pad test in Florida on Thursday, raising new challenges for Jeff Bezos space company as it competes with Elon Musks SpaceX...

SpaceX Delays Starship V3 Launch Ahead of Potential Record IPO

SpaceX on Thursday postponed the highly anticipated launch of its 12th Starship rocket test from Texas after technical issues interrupted the final countdown. The company now plans to attempt the Starship V3 launch again...

Trump Administration Releases New UFO Files and Apollo Mission Records

The U.S. Defense Department has released dozens of previously classified UFO-related files following an order from President Donald Trump, sparking renewed debate over unidentified anomalous phenomena (UAP) and government...

China vs. NASA: The New Moon Race and What's at Stake by 2030

The space race is back and this time, its a direct competition between the United States and China for dominance on the lunar surface. NASAs Artemis II mission recently made history when four astronauts flew farther into...

Technology

Anthropic AI Model Uncovers Vulnerabilities in Classified U.S. Government Systems During Security Test

Anthropics advanced artificial intelligence model identified vulnerabilities in classified U.S. government computer systems during a recent security testing exercise, according to a report by the Associated Press citing a...

Samsung Electronics Stock Surges on Report of Massive $59 Billion Share Buyback Plan

Samsung Electronics shares rallied sharply on Wednesday after a report suggested the company could launch a substantial share buyback program worth nearly 90 trillion won ($59 billion) over the next three years. The...

SK Hynix Moves Closer to New York ADR Listing Amid AI Chip Boom

South Korean memory chip giant SK Hynix is reportedly preparing to take a major step toward a U.S. market debut by filing documents for an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) offering with South Koreas financial regulator....

Cerebras Revenue Forecast Tops Expectations, but Margin Concerns Weigh on Stock

Cerebras Systems delivered a strong revenue outlook for 2026 that exceeded Wall Street expectations, but investors remained cautious as the companys profit margin forecast highlighted the challenges of competing with AI...

SpaceX Stock Rebounds After Sharp Selloff, But Valuation Concerns Persist

SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) recovered modestly on Tuesday, closing 0.9% higher at $156.06 after briefly falling below its post-IPO opening price during intraday trading. The stock touched a low of $147.11, slipping beneath the...