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Paul Whiteley

Professor, Department of Government, University of Essex
My research interests involve examining the nature & significance of political participation, particularly electoral participation, & also in understanding the causes & effects of public opinion on politics.

Global Geopolitics Series

How game theory predicts Trump might not do all that he threatens over Ukraine, Taiwan and Nato

Nov 19, 2024 07:46 am UTC| Insights & Views

Donald Trumps victory in the US presidential elections has left many across the world unsure about what he might do in his next term, and whether some of the threats he made about international policy will be followed...

Harris nudges ahead of Trump in the polls – but could the economy prove her downfall?

Oct 25, 2024 12:16 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

The current US vice-president and Democratic presidential candidate, Kamala Harris, appears to have nudged ahead of her Republican rival, Donald Trump, in the race to the White House. A poll of polls, which combines...

Should Rishi Sunak even bother? What we know about how much election campaigns shift the dial

Jun 03, 2024 11:05 am UTC| Politics

With polls showing Labour enjoying a significant lead over the Conservatives for well over a year, a key question as the election campaign picks up pace is whether Rishi Sunak can do anything over the next few weeks to...

US under Trump Series

US election: why Latino and Hispanic voters are shifting to Trump after a long history of supporting the Democrats

May 21, 2024 05:34 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Several recent polls suggest that the Hispanic and Latino vote is shifting towards Donald Trump as the election moves closer. In a YouGov poll from May 8, 43% of Americans said they would vote for President Joe Biden...

US election: two graphs show how young voters influence presidential results as Biden gets poll boost

Mar 28, 2024 12:04 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

American politics is very polarised at the moment, with bitter disagreements between Democrats and Republicans in Congress, in the media and in the presidential campaign. One source of polarisation that is rarely...

Biden's not yet getting a poll bump for the improving economy – history tells us why

Jan 11, 2024 03:30 am UTC| Economy Politics

When Americans are confident about their economy, they tend to support the incumbent president. When they are not confident, they tend to withdraw that support. The chart below shows that relationship between consumer...

US election: Jewish and Muslim votes probably don't have the power to change the outcome – despite backlash on Gaza policy

Dec 26, 2023 23:08 pm UTC| Politics

Recent polling suggests that Joe Bidens policy of backing Israel in the Israeli-Palestinian war is hurting him in the eyes of American Muslims. An #AbandonBiden campaign was launched by Muslim voters in Minnesota in...

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Economy

Diesel Dilemma: U.S. Considers Export Ban Amidst Record Prices

Rising domestic costs to unprecedented levels, President Trump has said support for a short ban on U.S. diesel exportsa complicated issue for the administration. Driven by the Middle East war, supply interruptions, and...

Asian Stocks Mixed Ahead of Trump-Xi Meeting

Asian stock markets traded mixed on Wednesday as investors remained cautious ahead of a closely watched meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. U.S. stock futures were also largely...

Asian Currencies Muted as Dollar Firms Ahead of Trump-Xi Summit

Most Asian currencies traded in narrow ranges on Wednesday as a firmer U.S. dollar and caution ahead of the Trump-Xi summit offset optimism stemming from falling oil prices. Regional trading volumes were subdued due to a...

Oil Prices Extend Losses as U.S.-Iran Talks Ease Supply Fears

Oil prices extended their decline for a sixth consecutive session on Wednesday as signs of diplomatic progress between the United States and Iran eased concerns over Middle East supply disruptions. Saudi Arabias efforts to...

Gold Prices Rise as Oil Slide Eases Fed Rate Hike Fears

Gold prices moved higher on Wednesday as a steep decline in oil prices eased inflation concerns and reduced expectations for additional interest rate increases from the U.S. Federal Reserve. Renewed signs of possible...

Politics

China Tightens Fentanyl Rules Ahead of Trump-Xi Summit

China has introduced new guidelines for handling criminal cases involving fentanyl-related substances, strengthening its legal framework for combating synthetic opioid crimes ahead of a high-profile meeting between Chinese...

Taiwan Vows to Advance US Arms Sales Ahead of Trump-Xi Meeting

Taiwan will maintain close communication with the United States to ensure planned arms sales move forward, a defence ministry official said Wednesday, as US President Donald Trump prepares to meet Chinese President Xi...

Macron Challenges Trump’s Gaza Peace Claims at UN

French President Emmanuel Macron challenged U.S. President Donald Trumps claims of achieving peace in Gaza on Tuesday, arguing that humanitarian access to the enclave had not improved despite the proclaimed agreement....

Russian Strikes Kill Eight Across Ukraine as Energy Sites Hit

Russian strikes across Ukraine killed eight people and damaged industrial and energy infrastructure on Tuesday as President Volodymyr Zelenskiy met U.S. President Donald Trump on the sidelines of the United Nations General...

Marco Rubio to Meet Russia’s Lavrov in New York

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is scheduled to meet Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in New York City on Wednesday morning, according to the U.S. State Department, as diplomatic attention remains focused on the...

Science

Blue Origin New Glenn Explosion Could Delay Launch Operations Until 2028

Blue Origin is facing a significant setback after a dramatic explosion involving its New Glenn rocket severely damaged a launch pad at Cape Canaveral, Florida. According to NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman, repairs to the...

Blue Origin New Glenn Rocket Explodes During Launch Pad Test, Delaying Space Ambitions

Blue Origin suffered a major setback after its uncrewed New Glenn rocket exploded during a launch pad test in Florida on Thursday, raising new challenges for Jeff Bezos space company as it competes with Elon Musks SpaceX...

SpaceX Delays Starship V3 Launch Ahead of Potential Record IPO

SpaceX on Thursday postponed the highly anticipated launch of its 12th Starship rocket test from Texas after technical issues interrupted the final countdown. The company now plans to attempt the Starship V3 launch again...

Trump Administration Releases New UFO Files and Apollo Mission Records

The U.S. Defense Department has released dozens of previously classified UFO-related files following an order from President Donald Trump, sparking renewed debate over unidentified anomalous phenomena (UAP) and government...

China vs. NASA: The New Moon Race and What's at Stake by 2030

The space race is back and this time, its a direct competition between the United States and China for dominance on the lunar surface. NASAs Artemis II mission recently made history when four astronauts flew farther into...

Technology

Scott Bessent Eyed as Trump’s New AI Czar

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is under consideration to become President Donald Trumps new artificial intelligence czar as Washington intensifies its focus on AI development, safety and national security. A source...

China Reviews Broadcom Switch Use in State Data Centres

China is reviewing the use of Broadcom switches in state-backed data centres as Beijing intensifies efforts to reduce dependence on foreign technology and promote domestic semiconductor and networking equipment suppliers,...

US Northeast Airports Resume Operations After Telecom Outage Disrupts Thousands of Flights

US airport operations across the Northeast began returning to normal on Monday after crews repaired telecommunications problems that had disrupted air traffic and contributed to thousands of flight delays and cancellations...

Burnham Eyes UK Leadership Role in AI Ahead of Trump Meeting

British Prime Minister Andy Burnham will push for the UK to take a global leadership role in artificial intelligence on Tuesday as he makes his first major appearance on the international diplomatic stage at the United...

OpenAI Urges US-Led Global Standards for Frontier AI

OpenAI is calling for the United States to lead an international effort to establish technical standards for advanced artificial intelligence, as concerns grow over increasingly capable AI systems and the prospect of...