EUR/USD Outlook

Oct 21, 2015 20:56 pm UTC| Commentary

EUR/USD has moved closer to the top of its six-month 1.0458-1.1714 range over the past month due to broadly weaker-than-expected US data. A shortterm break above the August high of 1.17, however, looks unlikely, as...

Russia's headline labour market data detracts from a bleaker reality

Oct 21, 2015 20:50 pm UTC| Commentary

Russias unemployment rate came out at a yearly low of 5.2%, suggesting hiring was more intensive in September due a slight pick-up in production. However, it is too soon to jump to conclusions, given: 1) the headline...

Bank of Canada left its policy rate on hold at 0.5%

Oct 21, 2015 20:30 pm UTC| Commentary Central Banks

The Bank of Canada decided to hold its overnight lending rate steady today at 0.5%, as widely expected. Many were expecting the Bank to sound slightly more upbeat (or at least less downbeat) on the outlook, and that was...

Oil prices and commodities reverse from October run up

Oct 21, 2015 20:19 pm UTC| Commentary

Why are commodities going down after their big October rally? Certainly, today U.S. Crude Oil inventories were more than twice expectations. But is that it; an oil glut? We have heard that Iran, once sanctions are removed...

Central banks set the direction in 2016

Oct 21, 2015 18:02 pm UTC| Commentary Central Banks

Global central banks continue to set the direction for global fixed income markets. The big unknown is still if, and when, the Fed will initiate its long-awaited hiking cycle after the Fed funds rate has been at 0.25%...

Canadian interest rates have bottomed and housing has peaked

Oct 21, 2015 17:34 pm UTC| Commentary Central Banks

It is no surprise to anyone that the Bank of Canada maintained its target overnight rate at 1/2 percent today, judging that the underlying trend in inflation continues to be about 1.5 to 1.7 percent. Even before the...

Euro-zone consumer confidence has probably waned this month

Oct 21, 2015 15:48 pm UTC| Commentary

The ECB may not announce any policy changes following its Governing Council monetary policy meeting (12.45 BST). After all, recent speeches from some members have suggested that they are not in a hurry to increase their...