Japan Signals Preference for Low Interest Rates as BOJ Policy Debate Intensifies 
BoE Policymaker Alan Taylor Signals No Need for Interest Rate Hike Amid Iran War Inflation Risks 
ECB Set to Raise Interest Rates as Energy Shock Fuels Eurozone Inflation Concerns 
Taiwan Central Bank Likely to Keep Interest Rates Unchanged Through 2027 
BOJ Hawk Signals Faster Interest Rate Hikes Amid Inflation Risks 
ECB Keeps July Rate Options Open Amid Iran War Energy Price Risks 
Malaysia Central Bank Moves to Support Ringgit Amid Foreign Fund Outflows 
Gold Prices Fall Amid Rate Jitters; Copper Steady as China Stimulus Eyed 
China Sets 1.25% Overnight Reverse Repo Rate Below Market Expectations 
Our expectations are in sharp contrast to expectations from big investment banks. As situation has improved both in inflationary terms globally and financial markets, oil price edged up, along with industrial commodities we don't expect European Central Bank (ECB) to do much today. Due to increased risks towards banking sector, we don't expect ECB to cut deposit rates further and increase stimulus by no more than € 10 billion.
Followings are the calls from analysts at big investment banks -
- Barclays - 10 basis points rate cut. No increase in asset purchase. No increase in purchase timeline. Inclusion of more instruments (semi-public entities) into the purchase program.
- Citi - 10 basis points rate cut. €15 billion increase in asset purchase. No increase in purchase timeline.
- Credit Suisse - 10 basis points rate cut. €20 billion increase in asset purchase. No increase in purchase timeline. Inclusion instruments like index or corporate credit or synthetic basket.
- Goldman Sachs - 10 basis points rate cut. €10 billion increase in asset purchase. 6 months increase in purchase timeline.
- HSBC - 10 basis points rate cut. No increase in asset purchase. No increase in purchase timeline. Introduce more LTROs.
- Morgan Stanley - 10 basis points rate cut. €20 billion increase in asset purchase. No increase in purchase timeline.
- RBS - 20 basis points rate cut. €10-15 billion increase in asset purchase. No increase in purchase timeline.
- UBS - Minimum 10 basis points rate cut. €10 billion increase in asset purchase. No increase in purchase timeline. Introduce more LTROs. Include non-bank corporates in purchase list.
