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BOJ Seen Holding Rates at 1% While Keeping Inflation Risk Warning 
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is facing growing pressure to accelerate interest rate hikes as the Japanese yen remains weak and expectations increase for a more hawkish U.S. Federal Reserve policy. Strong U.S. labor market data has reinforced the divergence between monetary policies in Japan and the United States, adding further strain on Japan’s currency.
Recent U.S. employment figures showed a third consecutive month of robust job growth, prompting investors to raise expectations that the Federal Reserve could increase interest rates by December rather than move toward rate cuts. While the Fed is widely expected to leave rates unchanged at its upcoming meeting under Chair Kevin Warsh, the strong economic data has strengthened the outlook for tighter U.S. monetary policy.
The Japanese yen traded near 160 per dollar on Tuesday, a level that previously triggered intervention by Japanese authorities. Since the currency first weakened beyond the 160 mark in late April, Japan has spent approximately 11.7 trillion yen, equivalent to about $73 billion, in foreign exchange interventions aimed at supporting the currency.
Market participants now expect the BOJ to raise its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 1% at its June 15-16 policy meeting. Financial markets are also pricing in a high probability of another increase later in 2026, potentially lifting rates to 1.25% by year-end.
Analysts suggest that the widening interest rate gap between Japan and the United States remains a key driver of yen depreciation. As a result, investors will closely monitor the BOJ’s guidance regarding future policy moves. Economists believe that signaling additional rate hikes may be one of the most effective tools available to Japanese policymakers in addressing currency weakness.
According to market data, swap traders are assigning a 93% probability to a BOJ rate increase this month, up significantly from around 80% in May. Expectations for a second rate hike by December have also climbed above 92%, reflecting growing confidence that the central bank will continue tightening monetary policy to stabilize the yen and manage inflation risks.
