USD/TWD likely to rise towards 30.5 mark over the medium-term, says Scotiabank

The USD/TWD currency pair is anticipated to rise towards the 30.5 mark over the medium-term as the pair has rallied through the 100-day MA resistance line. The TWD is relatively expensive in terms of the NEER and REER, according to reports from Scotiabank. The TWSE share index has broken below the upward trendline, indicating further downside movements going forward.

Since the release of the highly-anticipated iPhone X on September 13, persistent equity outflows have been seen from Taiwan as the device’s delayed availability could hurt holiday-quarter sales. Foreign investors offloaded a net USD68.1 million of local shares on Wednesday, bringing the total net stock outflows to USD1.94 billion in the month of September.

Continued stock outflows have weighed on the TWD and could undermine the local currency further. Fed Chair Janet Yellen said Tuesday that "it would be imprudent to keep monetary policy on hold until inflation is back to 2 percent," while uncertainty is high around the forces keeping inflation low.

Fed Funds Futures are now pricing in an 83.1 percent chance only of a December rate hike, which suggests some upside potential for the USD in the fourth quarter.

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