U.S. initial jobless claims declines in mid-September

U.S. initial jobless claims declines to a 48-year low in mid-September. In the week ended 15 September, initial jobless claims dropped for the third straight week to 201k. This is the lowest level seen since November 1960 and marks a new recovery-level low. The less volatile four-week average of claims dropped to 206k, also the lowest in the current recovery cycle. Overall, the claims data indicator towards to low rates of job separation and add to evidence of solid labor markets.

The report released today coincides with the survey week for the September payrolls data, as it includes the 12th of the month. At 201k, the data indicates to yet another solid month of payroll growth in September. Meanwhile, continuing claims for the week ended 8 September dropped to 1.65k, and the insured jobless rate remained stable at 1.2 percent.

However, in the weeks ahead, a temporary pickup in initial claims is expected, specifically in states impacted by Hurricane Florence, which made landfall on 14 September, noted Barclays. Similar to the trend seen after Hurricanes Harvey and Irma late last year, the impacted states are expected to see a surge in claims in the weeks ahead as storm-related losses and damage disrupt economic activity in these regions. Nevertheless, given the timing of the landfall, the hurricane impact on September’s payroll data might be small, and a larger impact might instead show up in the subsequent month’s report.

At 14:00 GMT the FxWirePro's Hourly Strength Index of US Dollar was highly bearish at -125.542. For more details on FxWirePro's Currency Strength Index, visit http://www.fxwirepro.com/currencyindex