Market Roundup
- EUR/GBP scaled new 1month high at 0.7363 after zero UK CPI number.
- GB Feb CPI 0.3% m/m, 0.0% y/y vs previous -09%/0.3%. 0.3%/0.1% consensus.
- GB Feb RPI 0.5% m/m, 1.0% y/y vs previous -0.8%/1.1%. 0.5%/1.0% consensus.
- GB Feb PPI Input px 0.2% m/m, -13.5% y/y vs previous -3.6%/-14.1%, 1.6%/-12.4% consensus.
- GB Feb PPI Output px 0.2% m/m, -1.8% y/y vs previous -0.4%/-1.9%, 0.0%/-1.9% consensus.
- GB Feb PPI core Output 0.1% m/m, 0.2% y/y vs previous 0.2%/0.3%,. 0.1%/0.4% consensus.
- EZ Mar Markit Mfg flash PMI 51.9 vs previous 51.0. 51.5 consensus.
- EZ Mar Markit Service flash PMI 54.3 vs previous 53.7. 53.9 consensus.
- EZ Mar Markit Comp flash PMI 54.1 vs previous 53.3. 53.6 consensus.
- Fed Williams: Rise in the USD has a huge effect on economic forecasts.
- Govt spokesman: Greece to present reform package to EG by Monday latest.
Economic Data Ahead
- (0745 EDT/1145 GMT) US Weekly Chain Store Sales Index (Mar 21 week) previous +2.1% y/y
- (0830 EDT/1230 GMT) US CPI (Feb) consensus +0.2% m/m, -0.1% y/y; previous -0.7% m/m, -0.1% y/y
- (0830 EDT/1230 GMT) US CPI ex Food and Energy (Feb) consensus +0.1% m/m, +1.6% y/y; previous +0.1% m/m, +1.6% y/y
- (0830 EDT/1230 GMT) US Real Average Weekly Earnings (Feb) previous +1.2% m/m
- (0855 EDT/1255 GMT) US Redbook Same Store Sales Index (Mar 21 wk) previous +2.7% y/y
- (0900 EDT/1300 GMT) US FHFA House Price Index (Jan) previous +5.4% y/y
- (0945 EDT/1345 GMT) US Markit Manufacturing PMI (flash Mar) consensus 54.7, previous 55.1
- (1000 EDT/1400 GMT) US New Home Sales (Feb) consensus 465k SAAR, previous 481k SAAR
- (1000 EDT/1400 GMT) US Philly Fed Non-Manufacturing Survey (Mar) previous 46.9
- (1100 EDT/1500 GMT) US Richmond Fed Services Index (Mar) previous 18
- (1100 EDT/1500 GMT) US Richmond Fed Composite Index (Mar) previous 0
- (1130 EDT/1530 GMT) US Cleveland Fed Median CPI (Feb) previous +0.2% m/m
Key Events Ahead
- (0605 EDT/1005 GMT) FRB St. Louis's Bullard on international monetary policy; London
- (1145 EDT/1545 GMT) FedTrade 15-year Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac (max $575 mln)
- (1430 EDT/1830 GMT) FedTrade 30-year Ginnie Mae (max $1.325 bln)
FX Recap
EUR/USD dropped in early European session but ran into major support at the 21-DMA 1.0905 and then saw a quick bounce. Those turning long on the back of stronger Eurozone PMIs supplemented tech related buying. Major psychological resistance seen at 1.1000, however, large 1.0950 and 1.0900 option expiries may put a brake on the rally. US CPI is the next focus.
USD/JPY dipped from 119.87 to 119.40, as Japanese bids (including from pension funds) seen at 119.50 were filled. Stops are clustered close to 119.25 and 119.00, which stays vulnerable. To the topside, offers moved up to the 120.00. EUR/JPY traded in 130.50-131.39 range so far.
GBP/USD plunged to an intra-day low of 1.4896 post UK's zero annualized UK Feb CPI inflation number. Forecast stood at 0.1% . Pair's half-cent rise has been led by real money buying. Early Europe low at 1.4918, later rose to a pre-UK inflation data high of 1.4967 caused by EUR/USD gains. EUR/GBP hit a fresh 1month peak of 0.7363, post the UK CPI data.
USD/CHF continued moving south has broke below the FOMC spike low at 0.9630, making a double bottom with the low from March 5. The fall took out the 100 DMA at 0.9601, which had been supporting the market. 0.9578 lows seen so far from 0.9692 in Asia. Next technical support at 0.9553 (76.4% retrace).
USD/CAD has fallen from 1.2546 (Asia high) to a six-day low of 1.2480 as more USD longs are lightened. Post-FOMC low at 1.2449.
