Market Roundup
•Australia Trade Balance (Dec): 3.373B, 3.420B forecast, 2.936B previous.
•Australia Exports (MoM) (Dec): 1.0%, -2.9%.
•Australia Imports (MoM) (Dec): -0.8%, 0.2%.
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•07:45 French Industrial Production (MoM) (Dec): 0.2%, -, -0.1% previous.
•08:00 Swiss Unemployment Rate n.s.a. (Jan): 3.1% previous.
•08:00 Swiss Unemployment Rate s.a. (Jan): 3.0% previous.
•08:30 HCOB Eurozone Construction PMI (MoM) (Jan): 47.4 previous.
•08:30 HCOB France Construction PMI (MoM) (Jan): 43.4 previous.
•08:30 HCOB Germany Construction PMI (Jan): 50.3 previous.
•08:30 HCOB Italy Construction PMI (MoM) (Jan): 47.9 previous.
•09:00 Italian Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec): -0.4% forecast, 0.5% previous.
•09:00 Italian Retail Sales (YoY) (Dec): 1.3% previous.
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro dipped on Thursday as investors awaited ECB rate decision . The European Central Bank is all but certain to keep interest rates unchanged on Thursday and signal that no policy move is imminent, even if the euro's recent surge against the dollar fuels concerns that inflation might undershoot its target.The euro zone's central bank has been on hold since ending a year-long run of rate cuts in June, and a benign outlook for both growth and prices has taken nearly all pressure off policymakers to provide any further support. With inflation at the 2% target, growth steady at the currency bloc's potential and interest rates on a neutral setting, some have called the current period a central banker's nirvana or the ECB's "Goldilocks" moment. Thursday's meeting is the first since Bulgaria joined the bloc on January 1, taking the number of countries that share the euro currency to 21. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1908(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1978(Jan 30th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1786(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1762(SMA 20).
GBP/USD: Sterling declined on Thursday as investors positioned ahead of the Bank of England’s policy meeting .The Bank of England is expected to keep interest rates on hold on Thursday and leave its options open about when it will cut them again as it waits to be sure that a weakening jobs market will push down on inflation pressures. The BoE will keep its benchmark Bank Rate at 3.75% at the February meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee, according to the overwhelming majority of economists polled by Reuters. Britain has the highest official borrowing costs among the world's big, rich economies. The main focus of investors at the BoE's policy announcement at 1200 GMT and a press conference half an hour later - is likely to be on any changes to its messaging. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3719(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3811(Jan 29th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3602 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3568(SMA 20).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar eased on Thursday as greenback firmed as investors remained focused on U.S. monetary policy signals. Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook said she is more concerned about stalled progress on inflation than a weakening labour market, signaling she would be unlikely to support another interest-rate cut until tariff-related price pressures begin to ease.On the data front, Australia's surplus on goods trade widened in December as exports of iron ore and coal picked up while imports dipped, data showed on Thursday.The Australian Bureau of Statistics said Australia’s goods trade surplus rose to A$3.37 billion ($2.36 billion) in December, up from a revised A$2.6 billion in November, broadly in line with market expectations of around A$3.25 billion. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6748(Feb 3rd high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7084(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6941(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6835(SMA 20)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar firmed against the yen on Thursday as the Japanese currency slid for a fourth consecutive session ahead of Sunday’s general election. Polls suggest a clear win for Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, backing her push for higher government spending, a stance that has unsettled markets worried about Japan’s fragile public finances.Takaichi called the snap election just three months into her term in a bold effort to secure voter backing for her agenda. She took office in October after inheriting a divided party and a minority government following Ishiba Shigeru’s exit after losing two parliamentary elections. Public confidence in the ruling LDP had been hit by rising living costs and a series of political funding scandals. Even so, despite her narrow path to leadership, Takaichi’s approval ratings have remained surprisingly strong at around 70% in her first three months.Immediate resistance can be seen at 157.89(Dec 18th high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 159.21(23.6%fib) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 155.37(Daily low) a break below could take the pair towards 154.36 (50%fib).
Equities Recap
Asian stocks fell for a third straight session on Wednesday amid U.S.-Greenland tensions, while the global bond selloff showed signs of easing.
Hang Sang was down 1.17%, Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down by 0.89% ,South Korea’s KOSPI was down at 3.78%
Commodities Recap
Oil prices fell on Thursday after the U.S. and Iran agreed to hold talks in Oman on Friday, easing concerns about a potential military conflict that could disrupt supply from the key Middle East producing region.
Brent crude futures fell $1, or 1.4%, to $68.47 per barrel at 0152 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude prices fell 91 cents, or also 1.4%, to trade at$64.23.
Gold and silver prices were up a little in early trade after an epic implosion last Friday that saw the two plunging from lofty record highs.
Gold rose 0.3% to $4,976 an ounce while silver inched up 0.2% to $88.20 an ounce
