Market Roundup
• Canada Unemployment Rate (Jan): 6.5%, 6.8% forecast, 6.8% previous
• Canada Employment Change (Jan): -24.8K, 5.2K forecast, 10.1K previous
• Canada Full Employment Change (Jan): 44.9K, 50.2K previous
• Canada Part Time Employment Change (Jan): -69.7K, -41.3K previous
• Canada Avg Hourly Wages Permanent Employee (Jan): 3.3%, 3.7% previous
• Canada Participation Rate (Jan): 65.0%, 65.4% previous
• Canada Ivey PMI (Jan): 50.9, 49.7 forecast, 51.9 previous
• U.S. Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Feb): 3.5%, 4.0% previous
• U.S. Michigan Consumer Expectations (Feb): 56.6, 56.7 forecast, 57.0 previous
• U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Feb): 57.3, 55.0 forecast, 56.4 previous
• U.S. Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Feb): 3.4%, 3.3% previous
• Canada Ivey PMI n.s.a (Jan): 47.0, 43.3 previous
• U.S. Michigan Current Conditions (Feb): 58.3, 54.9 forecast, 55.4 previous
•U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count: 412, 411 previous
U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count: 551, 546 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•No Data Ahead
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• No events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged higher on Friday as risk assets rebounded from a deep rout driven by concerns over a surge in AI-related spending this year. The catalyst for this week's gain was President Donald Trump's nomination last Friday of Kevin Warsh, who is not seen as a big advocate of steep rate cuts, as the next Federal Reserve chair.Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said on Friday that he is " cautiously optimistic " about 2026, expecting slightly above-trend growth, a steadying job market, and inflation continuing toward 2%, with current policy positioned to respond to both sides of the Fed's mandate. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1908(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1978(Jan 30th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1786(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1762(SMA 20).
GBP/USD: The pound rose on Friday, regaining some ground after a sharp decline in the previous session that followed the Bank of England’s unexpectedly close vote to keep interest rates unchanged and its indication that cuts could follow if inflation continues to ease.Sterling climbed 0.4% to $1.3581 by mid-morning in London, recovering part of Thursday’s nearly 1% drop, which had pushed the currency to its lowest level in 10 days. On top of the shifting outlook for interest rates, sterling traders, who are sticking with their view that the BoE will likely cut rates twice this year, are having to contend with a tricky political backdrop this week.Prime Minister Keir Starmer is under huge pressure, including from lawmakers in his own Labour Party, over the decision to make Peter Mandelson Britain's ambassador to Washington in December 2024, when his ties to the late U.S. sex offender Jeffrey Epstein were already known. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3676(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3728(Feb 4th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3547 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3419(61.8%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar firmed against the U.S. dollar on Friday as higher commodities price supported Canadian dollar despite mixed domestic employment data. Gold rebounded on Friday, it was poised for a weekly gain, aided by bargain-hunting and a slightly weaker U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, Spot silver jumped 6.3 percent to $75.70 an ounce, bouncing back from an earlier dip below $65.Canada unexpectedly lost 24,800 jobs in January, but the losses were all part-time, and the unemployment rate dipped to a 16-month low of 6.5% as fewer people looked for work. Oil prices were mixed on Friday as markets reacted to U.S.–Iran talks in Oman, with traders watching for any signs that tensions could escalate into a supply disrupting Middle East conflict. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3744 (SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3787 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3652(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3482(23.6%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged on Friday as the Japanese weakened ahead of Sunday's vote where a victory for Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi could be on the cards.. Japan’s first female Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, is seeking to reinforce her grip on power in Sunday’s national vote, with opinion polls indicating a strong victory for her conservative party. Surveys released this week suggest that Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party, together with its coalition partner the Japan Innovation Party (Ishin), could win around 300 seats in the 465-member lower house of parliament.Takaichi’s proposal to help households cope with rising living costs by suspending the 8% sales tax on food triggered a market selloff last month, as investors raised concerns about the fiscal consequences of the plan.The election has left investors cautious, with fiscal concerns already fueling sharp volatility in currency and bond markets. Any further declines could have broader ripple effects across global financial markets. Immediate resistance can be seen at 157.89(Dec 18th high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 159.21(23.6%fib) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 155.37(Daily low) a break below could take the pair towards 154.36 (50%fib).
Equities Recap
Europe’s benchmark share index rose on Friday in a broad-based rebound from the previous session’s losses, as investors evaluated mixed earnings from companies including automaker Stellantis and defence firm Kongsberg.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.59 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.94 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.43 percent.
U.S. stocks rose on Friday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq ending three-day losing streaks, while the Dow closed above 50,000 for the first time.
Dow Jones closed up by 2.47 % percent, S&P 500 closed up by 1.97 % percent, Nasdaq settled up by 2.18% percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold rebounded on Friday and was on track for a weekly gain, supported by bargain-hunting, a slightly weaker dollar, and lingering concerns over U.S.-Iran talks in Oman, while silver recovered from a one-and-a-half-month low.
Spot gold rose 3.9% to $4,954.92 per ounce by 2:18 p.m. ET (1918 GMT), recouping losses during a volatile Asia session following Thursday's 3.9% decline. The yellow metal was headed for a weekly gain of about 2%.U.S. gold futures for April delivery settled 1.8% higher at $4,979.80 per ounce.
Oil prices settled higher on Friday, reversing earlier losses as traders grew concerned that this week’s U.S.-Iran talks had not eased the risk of a potential military conflict between the two countries.
Brent crude futures settled at $68.05 a barrel, up 50 cents, or 0.74%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude finished up 26 cents, or 0.41%, at $63.55 a barrel.
