Market Roundup
- Sterling broke above 1.5 levels, 1-month highs.
- China's Premier Li urges banks to increase support for the real economy.
- European Union Mar Inflation Final mm increases to 1.1 % (consensus 1.1 %) vs previous 0.6 %.
- European Union Mar Inflation, Final yy stays flat at -0.1 % (consensus -0.1 %) vs previous -0.1 %.
- European Union Feb Current Account sa, eur decreases to 26.4 bln eur (consensus 29.4 bln eur) vs previous 29.4 bln eur.
- United Kingdom Feb ILO Unemployment Rate decreases to 5.6 % (consensus 5.6 %) vs previous 5.7 %.
- United Kingdom Mar Claimant Count Unemployment Change increases to -20.7 k (consensus -29.5 k) vs previous -31.0 k.
Economic Data Ahead
- (0830 EDT/1230 GMT) USCPI (Mar) consensus +0.3% m/m, 0.0% y/y; previous +0.2% m/m; 0.0% y/y
- (0830 EDT/1230 GMT) US CPI ex-Food & Energy (Mar) consensus +0.2% m/m, +1.7% y/y; previous +0.2% m/m; +1.7% y/y
- (0830 EDT/1230 GMT) USReal Earnings (Mar) consensus -0.4% m/m, previous -0.1% m/m
- (1000 EDT/1400 GMT) USU of Mich Consumer Sentiment Index (Apr) consensus 94.0, previous 93.0
- (1000 EDT/1400 GMT) US U of Mich Current Conditions Index (Apr) consensus 105.2, previous 105.0
- (1000 EDT/1400 GMT) US U of Mich Expectations Index (Apr) consensus 87.0, previous 85.3
- (1130 EDT/1530GMT) Cleveland Fed Median CPI (Mar) previous +0.2% m/m
Key Events Ahead
- (1145 EDT/1545GMT) FedTrade Operation 30-year Ginnie Mae (max $925 mln)
FX Recap
EUR/USD climbed higher and reached session highs near 1.0830 after the final March inflation numbers showed consumer prices staying flat at -0.1 percent on an annualised basis and rising 1.1 percent inter-month, in line with expectations. The pair is likely to face resistance at 1.0834 (high ) and a break above could push it to 1.0887 (high Apr.8) and then 1.0947 (high Apr.7). On the downside, support is seen at 1.0613 (100-h MA), below that at 1.0571 (low ) and finally 1.0532 (low ). Option expiries at 1.0450 (631M), 1.0600 (662M), 1.0800 (1.1B), 1.0850 (623M), 1.0900 (2.0B).
GBP/USD is boosted by the drop in the UK unemployment rate and broke above the 1.5000 mark and is currently trading at 1.5051 levels. The immediate resistance level is eyed at 1.5060 levels and a break above could target 1.51 levels. On the other hand, support is expected to be found at 1.4960, and a break below could extend its losses to 1.4920 levels. Option expiries at 1.5000 (305M), 1.5130 (446M).
AUD/USD extended its upward move and currently trades at 0.7821 levels, having posted a high of 0.7841 levels and a low of 0.7768 levels. On the upside, immediate resistance is located at 0.7823 levels and a break above could extend its gains to 0.7840 levels. On the flipside, a break below 0.7730 levels could drag the pair to 0.7700 levels. Option expiries at 0.7900 (235M).
USD/JPY continued losing ground on Friday inching closer to the 118.50 levels as the longer duration and shorter duration yield on US treasuries continue to fall. Markets are not focussing on US CPI and consumer sentiment data due later in the day. The pair has resistance at 119.49 (April 16 High) levels and convincing break above could see it rising to 119.76 (April 15 High) levels. On the flipside, support is seen at 118.73 (Today's Low) and then at 118.50 levels. Option expiries at 118.65 (300M), 120.00 (1.8B), 121.20 (500M), 121.40 (401M).
USD/CHF weakened further in Europe and unable to break above 0.9600 levels. It currently trades at 0.9505 levels with a high of 0.9583 levels and low of 0.9493 levels. On the topside, resistance is seen at 0.9600 levels and a break above could see the pair testing 0.9640 (50-DMA) levels. On the downside, immediate support is located at 0.9500 levels, below which losses could be extended to 0.9465 levels.
