U.S. Futures Slip as Iran Ceasefire Uncertainty and CPI Data Weigh on Markets

U.S. stock index futures edged slightly lower Thursday evening as investors exercised caution ahead of high-stakes ceasefire negotiations between Washington and Tehran, while bracing for a closely watched inflation report. All three major futures contracts — the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow Jones — dipped 0.1%, reflecting a wait-and-see mood following a strong regular trading session.

Wall Street capped a positive day, with the S&P 500 extending its winning streak to seven consecutive sessions. Optimism around potential Middle East de-escalation, combined with renewed investor appetite for technology stocks, fueled the rally. The S&P 500 gained 0.6%, the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.8%, and the Dow Jones climbed 0.6%.

Diplomatic efforts to resolve the U.S.-Iran conflict moved forward as delegates from both nations were scheduled to meet in Pakistan — marking the first direct talks since hostilities broke out in late February. However, uncertainty loomed after Iran accused the U.S. and Israel of violating the two-week ceasefire agreement almost immediately after it was announced. Iran's ambassador to Pakistan also deleted a social media post confirming the delegation's arrival, leaving the talks' status in question. Key disputes remain unresolved, particularly surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has largely kept blocked despite earlier commitments to allow safe passage.

Investor attention also turned to Friday's Consumer Price Index report for March. Analysts anticipate a sharp rise in headline inflation, driven largely by surging fuel costs linked to Iran's Hormuz blockade. This follows Federal Reserve minutes revealing policymakers' growing concerns about war-driven inflation pressures. Persistent inflation could diminish the Fed's willingness to cut interest rates in 2025.

Adding to the cautious tone, fourth-quarter GDP data revealed economic growth came in notably weaker than initially estimated. Markets will also be watching upcoming earnings from major chipmakers TSMC and ASML for further directional cues.