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US Futures Fall as Fed Meeting, Oil Surge Rattle Markets

US Futures Fall as Fed Meeting, Oil Surge Rattle Markets. Source: Tim Evanson, CC BY-SA 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons

U.S. stock futures moved lower Tuesday as investors prepared for the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting while escalating Middle East tensions pushed oil prices above $105 a barrel and lifted Treasury yields.

Dow futures dropped 266 points, or 0.5%, by 03:20 ET, while S&P 500 futures declined 0.4% and Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.3%. Wall Street also closed lower Monday as renewed concerns over artificial intelligence weighed heavily on technology shares, sending the Philadelphia semiconductor index to its steepest decline since July.

Bond markets remained under pressure as higher energy costs fueled inflation concerns. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed above 5% for the first time since 2023.

Investors are now focused on Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision. Markets assign roughly a 92% probability to a 25-basis-point rate increase, which would bring the federal funds target range to 3.75%-4%, according to CME FedWatch. Persistent inflation, resilient employment and surging energy prices have strengthened expectations for tighter monetary policy.

Brent crude extended its rally as Middle East supply risks intensified. Fresh Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia followed last week’s strikes that knocked the kingdom’s east-west oil pipeline offline. Continued disruption around the Strait of Hormuz and threats to shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb have raised concerns that another 4%-5% of global oil supplies could be affected.

AI risks also remained in focus after former Google DeepMind research engineer Bilal Chughtai warned that rapidly advancing artificial intelligence could pose severe dangers to humanity. His comments followed similar concerns from former Anthropic researcher Jacob Coxon and Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei.

Meanwhile, China reported stronger-than-expected industrial production. Output increased 5.2% year-over-year in August, beating forecasts for 4.8% growth and accelerating from July’s 4.5%. Strong overseas demand for electronics components, batteries and networking equipment supported production.

However, China’s broader economy remained under pressure, with fixed-asset investment falling 7.2% through August, slightly worse than the expected 7% decline.

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