UK’s industrial activity disappoints expectations, manufacturing posts a modest rise

UK industrial production for the month of March remained below expectations at 0.3 pct, against 0.5 pct expected, though an improvement from February’s figure of a decline of 0.2 pct. However, manufacturing output rose by 0.1 pct, a slight rebound post previous month’s decline of 1.1 pct.

Further, oil production fell by 0.4 pct while utilities output rose sharply, possibly reflecting unseasonal weather trends. While the data show a modest pickup in manufacturing activity towards the end of Q1, the overall level is still low enough to suggest that it will probably make little contribution to GDP growth in Q1, Lloyds bank reported.

The recent weakening in the sterling effective exchange is still consistent with some pick up in manufacturing output in coming months but it appears at least for now that GDP growth will remain overwhelmingly services driven.

"Moreover, given signs that service sector growth slowed during Q1, we expect only a modest rise in GDP in Q2 of 0.3%," Lloyds Bank said in a research note.